See How to Sail Uncharted Waters Language foils our ability to think about the future. Phrases like ‘fair chance’ or ‘likely’ can be interpreted in many different ways by David A. Shaywitz. He is a lecturer at Harvard Medical School and an adjunct fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
He reviewed the book The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck by David Spiegelhalter. Excerpts:
"Assigning
probabilities is challenging outside of tightly controlled situations
like casino games, where the rules are clear. Most of life doesn’t lend
itself to convenient reduction. Unlike temperature or mass, the author
argues, probability is not a property of nature. Rather it is
intrinsically personal, reflecting one’s relationship with the outside
world, and it depends on one’s perspective and knowledge. While most of
us can agree on the probability that a flipped coin will come up heads,
our assessments of other probabilities, like the chances the Red Sox
will win the World Series, may differ. Such predictions, he writes, “are
constructed on the basis of personal judgment.”
Mr.
Spiegelhalter distinguishes between “perfect storms” (predictable
events that are more severe than expected) and “black swans”
(significant events that were never expected). Cases involving “deep
uncertainty,” where we don’t know what we don’t know, are especially
challenging. (His example: “trying to specify the possible impacts of AI
in twenty-five years’ time.”) Obtaining diverse viewpoints can help. So
can imagination: The author notes that the U.K. Ministry of Defence has
sponsored science-fiction writing contests to expand its thinking."
"In evaluating whether to receive a new vaccine, for example, we might
dwell on the possible harms because they are experienced by identifiable
individuals. By contrast, the benefits accrue to “statistical” people.
We can’t specify the individuals whose lives were saved."
"after iPod users complained about songs repeating, Apple supposedly
adjusted the shuffle feature to make it “non-random—in order to make it
seem random.”"
"After the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, he writes, one
worker died from cancer attributed to radiation exposure, “but the
evacuation caused massive social, economic and mental health harms,
including over fifty immediate fatalities of inpatients and elderly
people during the evacuation, while nearly 1,800 subsequent deaths were
classified as ‘disaster-related.’ ” As the author astutely observes:
“Excessive precaution, spurred on by fears of radiation, led to measures
that produced far more harm than benefit.”"
Related posts:
‘Uncertainty and Enterprise’ Review: Known Unknowns: Risk can be quantified, uncertainty cannot. But paying attention to one’s doubts in business can inspire imaginative thinking (2025)
The Pyschology & Economics Of Decision Making Under Uncertainty (With Snoopy's Version From 1966) (2013)
