Monday, April 20, 2026

Adam Smith Meets Joseph Campbell (the force of history is hard for man to change)

Campbell wrote the book The Hero With a Thousand Faces, which was one of the inspirations for Star Wars. He was interviewed by Bill Moyers in a six hour series in the 1980s on PBS. That series was called The Power of Myth.

Here is one passage:

"“This is the threat to our lives that we all face today. Is the system going to flatten you out and deny you your humanity, or are you going to be able to make use of the system to the attainment of human purposes? How do you relate to the system so that you are not compulsively serving it? It doesn't help to try to change it to accord with your system of thought. The momentum of history behind it is too great for anything really significant to evolve from that kind of action. The thing to do is learn to live in your period of history as a human being. That's something else, and it can be done.”"
Here is another:
"The world is a wasteland. People have the notion of saving the world by shifting it around and changing the rules and so forth. No, any world is a living world if it’s alive, and the thing is to bring it to life. And the way to bring it to life is to find in your own case where your life is, and be alive yourself, it seems to me."
Adam Smith said something that seemed similar in his book The Theory of Moral Sentiments:
"The natural course of things cannot be entirely controlled by the impotent endeavours of man: the current is too rapid and too strong for him to stop it; and though the rules which direct it appear to have been established for the wisest and best purposes, they sometimes produce effects which shock all his natural sentiments."
Smith also seems to be hinting at the law of unintended consequences. Here is a longer excerpt to see the context:
"But though the general rules by which prosperity and adversity are commonly distributed, when considered in this cool and philosophical light, appear to be perfectly suited to the situation of mankind in this life, yet they are by no means suited to some of our natural sentiments. Our natural love and admiration for some virtues is such, that we should wish to bestow on them all sorts of honours and rewards, even those which we must acknowledge to be the proper recompenses of other qualities, with which those virtues are not always accompanied. Our detestation, on the contrary, for some vices is such, that we should desire to heap upon them every sort of disgrace and disaster, those not excepted which are the natural consequences of very different qualities. Magnanimity, generosity, and justice, command so high a degree of admiration, that we desire to see them crowned with wealth, and power, and honours of every kind, the natural consequences of prudence, industry, and application; qualities with which those virtues are not inseparably connected. Fraud, falsehood, brutality, and violence, on the other hand, excite in every human breast such scorn and abhorrence, that our indignation rouses to see them possess those advantages which they may in some sense be said to have merited, by the diligence and industry with which they are sometimes attended. The industrious knave cultivates the soil; the indolent good man leaves it uncultivated. Who ought to reap the harvest? who starve, and who live in plenty? The natural course of things decides it in favour of the knave: the natural sentiments of mankind in favour of the man of virtue. Man judges, that the good qualities of the one are greatly over-recompensed by those advantages which they tend to procure him, and that the omissions of the other are by far too severely punished by the distress which they naturally bring upon him; and human laws, the consequences of human sentiments, forfeit the life and the estate of the industrious and cautious traitor, and reward, by extraordinary recompenses, the fidelity and public spirit of the improvident and careless good citizen. Thus man is by Nature directed to correct, in some measure, that distribution of things which she herself would otherwise have made. The rules which for this purpose she prompts him to follow, are different from those which she herself observes. She bestows upon every virtue, and upon every vice, that precise reward or punishment which is best fitted to encourage the one, or to restrain the other. She is directed by this sole consideration, and pays little regard to the different degrees of merit and demerit, which they may seem to possess in the sentiments and passions of man. Man, on the contrary, pays regard to this only, and would endeavour to render the state of every virtue precisely proportioned to that degree of love and esteem, and of every vice to that degree of contempt and abhorrence, which he himself conceives for it. The rules which she follows are fit for her, those which he follows for him: but both are calculated to promote the same great end, the order of the world, and the perfection and happiness of human nature.

But though man is thus employed to alter that distribution of things which natural events would make, if left to themselves; though, like the gods of the poets, he is perpetually interposing, by extraordinary means, in favour of virtue, and in opposition to vice, and, like them, endeavours to turn away the arrow that is aimed at the head of the righteous, but to accelerate the sword of destruction that is lifted up against the wicked; yet he is by no means able to render the fortune of either quite suitable to his own sentiments and wishes. The natural course of things cannot be entirely controlled by the impotent endeavours of man: the current is too rapid and too strong for him to stop it; and though the rules which direct it appear to have been established for the wisest and best purposes, they sometimes produce effects which shock all his natural sentiments. That a great combination of men should prevail over a small one; that those who engage in an enterprise with forethought and all necessary preparation, should prevail over such as oppose them without any; and that every end should be acquired by those means only which Nature has established for acquiring it, seems to be a rule not only necessary and unavoidable in itself, but even useful and proper for rousing the industry and attention of mankind. Yet, when, in consequence of this rule, violence and artifice prevail over sincerity and justice, what indignation does it not excite in the breast of every human spectator? What sorrow and compassion for the sufferings of the innocent, and what furious resentment against the success of the oppressor? We are equally grieved and enraged at the wrong that is done, but often find it altogether out of our power to redress it. When we thus despair of finding any force upon earth which can check the triumph of injustice, we naturally appeal to heaven, and hope, that the great Author of our nature will himself execute hereafter, what all the principles which he has given us for the direction of our conduct, prompt us to attempt even here; that he will complete the plan which he himself has thus taught us to begin; and will, in a life to come, render to every one according to the works which he has performed in this world. And thus we are led to the belief of a future state, not only by the weaknesses, by the hopes and fears of human nature, but by the noblest and best principles which belong to it, by the love of virtue, and by the abhorrence of vice and injustice."

Related posts:

Science Proves That Adam Smith Was Right Over 200 Years Ago (sort of) (2009) 

Adam Smith vs. Ace Ventura (2010)
 
Adam Smith, Marriage Counselor (2011)

Adam Smith And Joseph Campbell On The Dangers Of "The Man Of System" (2017) 

Adam Smith Meets Jonathan Haidt (on political polarization and the animosity of hostile factions) (2021) 

Pride and Profit: The Intersection of Jane Austen and Adam Smith (2023)

Sunday, April 19, 2026

The Economy Is Growing, Jobs Aren’t. Why That Might Be OK.

An unusual divergence between GDP and new jobs shows worker productivity is making up for a slowdown in immigration and the labor force. AI could help.

By Harriet Torry of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"output per hour in the nonfarm business sector rose 2.1% last year. Growth has also averaged 2.1% over the past six years, a pickup from the 1.5% a year average from 2007 to 2019, and stronger than other Western economies."

"output per hour in the nonfarm business sector rose 2.1% last year. Growth has also averaged 2.1% over the past six years, a pickup from the 1.5% a year average from 2007 to 2019, and stronger than other Western economies."

"he number of new jobs needed to keep the unemployment rate stable, called the breakeven rate, has also fallen"

"“Zero job growth just doesn’t map into any kind of stability in terms of employment and whatnot,” Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said at an economics conference in late February. “This would be the first time in my career, my life, that I saw an economy growing like this and zero job growth. I don’t even know quite how to think about this because I’ve never seen it before.”"

"Productivity growth is volatile and often driven by short-lived cyclical factors. The recent acceleration, though, might be durable. Economists say the Covid lockdowns and worker shortages that followed forced many companies to speed up automation. A hot labor market and shift to remote-work policies allowed greater numbers of workers to move into jobs they performed more productively." 

Friday, April 17, 2026

Big Crime Drop Has Many Explanations

See What’s Behind the Historic Drop in U.S. Crime: Explanations for the fall range from tougher policing to societal changes like less alcohol consumption and more time spent alone by Scott Calvert and Josh Ulick of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"The homicide rate fell last year to at least a 125-year low, based on projected final-year data"

"Continuing drops in a range of other reported crimes, such as robbery and theft, point to a public-safety rebound after the upheaval spurred by the Covid-19 pandemic."

"Theories to explain decreasing crime range from an influx of federal funding to stepped-up police enforcement, along with longer-term societal shifts, like reduced alcohol consumption and increased time spent alone."

"Last year, homicide rates slid below 2015 levels to the lowest rate in a decade in more than half of 58 cities tracked by the Major Cities Chiefs Association.

Steep drop-offs extended to cities that still have some of the country’s highest per capita homicide levels. From 2020 to 2025, the homicide rate plunged 59% in Baltimore, 43% in St. Louis and 39% in New Orleans."

"there is a “strong possibility” last year’s homicide rate will be 4 per 100,000 residents"

"That would be the lowest rate recorded in public health or police data stretching back to 1900"

One cause was "a return to normal routines following the pandemic, and an easing of volatility in illicit drug markets post-Covid" 

and "the influx of billions of dollars in federal pandemic aid that restored more than one million local government jobs"

"Those jobs are teachers and counselors and clinicians and local police, all the people who work directly with young people who are at the highest risk of violence and victimization"

I like this article because major trends like this don't always have just one cause. The hard part is figuring out how important each cause was. 

Thursday, April 16, 2026

'Brands’ New Authenticity Flex: ‘No AI’ Advertising Disclaimers'

See Brands Adopt ‘No AI’ Disclaimers to Stand Out Amid the Slop: Marketers move to get ahead of growing consumer skepticism by labeling content that doesn’t use AI by Patrick Coffee of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"As the AI-generated imagery and video colloquially called slop spreads across social media and video feeds, marketers are going out of their way to tell consumers they’re not to blame.

“We commit: No AI generated bodies or people,” promised a campaign last month from Aerie, the intimate apparel brand"

They are "building on its 2014 promise not to retouch people in its ads"

"“Our DNA is about realness, about not changing a person, you know, not erasing stretch marks,” McCormick said." (Chief Marketing Officer Stacey McCormick)

"Sixty-eight percent of consumers regularly question whether the content they see is real, and 50% would rather spend their money with brands that don’t use generative AI in marketing, according to a survey by market research firm Gartner. Another report from software firm Cint found that 63% of consumers think brands have a duty to disclose when they use AI in marketing."

"Major social-media platforms have struggled to detect and label AI-generated content."

"A number of brands are already on board."

"Aerie . . . isn’t averse to AI help with small changes like lighting adjustments after the fact"

"Budgetary concerns also play a role. Aerie spends more on production to avoid using AI-generated models" (does it cost more to be authentic? And will consumers being willing to pay more for authenticity)

"New York last year became the first state to pass a law requiring businesses to disclose the use of AI-generated humans in their marketing content."

Related posts (with some excerpts):

Photos show China's most surreal tourist spot— a fake Instagram-worthy town full of pretend farmers and phony fishermen (2021)

The Myth of Authenticity Or The Story Behind Products (2010)

"What do brands like Häagen Dazs, Baileys Original Irish Cream, Bombay Sapphire and Kerrygold all have in common? Each stretches the myth behind the brand to promote heritage and authenticity." 

Fake Authenticity (2011)

"Whenever you find something described as authentic, you know that you are already in the realm of fake authenticity," says Andrew Potter in his recent book "The Authenticity Hoax." It's not unlike the "right stuff" Tom Wolfe described: No fighter pilot who had that elusive quality would ever think to say so. "Authenticity is like authority or charisma," Mr. Potter writes. "If you have to tell people you have it, then you probably don't."" 

Students: Make a mistake on purpose, its good for you! (2007)

This may sound surprising, but counselors advocate making a mistake on your college applications like an intentional typo. This makes you seem more "authentic." 

What if companies can't afford real models for their ads? Use AI generated fake pictures  (2020)

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

What’s Up, Doc? Chocolate Prices

See Why Filling Up Your Easter Basket Is So Expensive, Despite Much-Lower Cocoa Prices: Underpinning the surge in retail prices is a historical move seen in futures for cocoa by Kirk Maltais of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"Global supply chain headaches have been hitting chocolate hard"

"The average cost for a package of chocolate candy through March 22 was $3.68 a unit"

"That’s up 10% from the same 52-week period last year."

"a shopper spending $20 on packages of Reese’s Peanut Butter Eggs at Target could buy five bags of the candy for $3.99 each in 2020. Those same packages are now $6.29"

"In 2024, prices for cocoa futures trading on the Intercontinental Exchange rose exponentially, going from around $4,200 a metric ton to start to year to peaking at more than $12,000 a ton by December."

"Prices have since tumbled back to historical norms, last month falling to below $3,000 a ton for the first time in nearly three years."

"What fueled the run-up in cocoa futures was poor weather in West African nations"

"the source of roughly 70% of the world’s cocoa beans. Excessive rainfall creating disease issues for beans limited the amount of cocoa coming out of West African ports."

"Pricing across consumer products tends to adjust with a lag, reflecting hedging practices and inventory cycles"

"World cocoa production is up 8% from last year"

Related posts:

Chocolate, nationality and price elasticity of demand (2025) 

Why Your Valentine’s Chocolate Is Getting More Expensive: Cocoa futures have climbed more than 80% since this time last year (2025) 

Chocolate Prices Have Soared. A New Law Threatens to Keep Them High: A European Union law that aims to make chocolate more sustainable has left farmers racing to map their plots (2024) 

Record Cocoa Prices Are Making Sweet Cravings Expensive (2024)

Cocoa Cartel Stirs Up Global Chocolate Market (2020)

What Chocolate Shortage? Cocoa Prices Steady as Record Output Projected  (2019) 

Economy Got You Down? Buy An $8 Chocolate Bar For A Little "Compensatory Consumption" (2008)

Monday, April 13, 2026

More Americans Are Breaking Into the Upper Middle Class

Research shows that ranks of higher earners have grown markedly over last 50 years, while lower rungs of middle class have shrunk

By Rachel Louise Ensign of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"America’s middle class is becoming wealthier as more families scale the economic ladder into higher-earning groups. New research shows that the ranks of the affluent have grown markedly over the last 50 years or so, while the lower rungs of the middle class have shrunk."

"In 2024, about 31% of Americans were part of the upper middle class, up from about 10% in 1979"

"There is no single, standard definition of middle class, or upper middle class, and what counts as a hefty income in one city can feel paltry in another. The AEI report, by Stephen Rose and Scott Winship, classified a family of three earning $133,000 to $400,000 in 2024 dollars as upper middle class. Households earning more were categorized as rich. The analysis looked just at incomes, not assets such as stocks or real estate."

"The AEI report divided families into five different groups by income. Three groups were in the middle: lower middle class, core middle class and upper middle class. 

The authors found that more families now fall into the two highest-earning groups—upper middle class and rich—and fewer fall into the three lower-earning categories.

In 2024, about 19% of American families were considered “poor or near poor,” according to the AEI report, down from about 30% in 1979. The report defined that group as a family of three earning about $40,000 or less in 2024 dollars."

"The economists considered a family earning between five times and 15 times the poverty guideline to be in the upper middle class—thus their parameters of $133,000 to $400,000." 

"Upper-income groups are swelling because wages have grown faster than prices over time"

"More than 80% of people in the upper middle class and rich categories were in married or cohabitating households"

"A Pew Research Center analysis using a different methodology also discovered that the share of American families in the higher-income group is growing. The analysis found that in 2023, 19% of Americans fell into an “upper income” group, up from 11% in 1971.

"Pew classified upper income as those earning more than twice the median household income, so more than roughly $200,000 or more for a family of three in 2024."

 

 

Related posts:

The Middle Class Is Buckling Under Almost Five Years of Persistent Inflation: Workers growing tired of economy in which everything seems to get more expensive (2025)

Wealth And The Middle Class (2019) "Counting all kinds of debt, including mortgages, consumers aren’t nearly as debt-burdened as they once were." 

The American middle class is shrinking because more people are becoming upper middle class and rich (2016)

Saturday, April 11, 2026

Why Economics Is Really Called 'the Dismal Science': The (not-so-dismal) origin myth of a ubiquitous term

By Derek Thompson of The Atlantic Monthly. From 2013. 

"The story goes like this: Thomas Carlyle, a Scottish writer and philosopher, called economics "the dismal science" in reference to Thomas Malthus, that lugubrious economist who claimed humanity was trapped in a world where population growth would always strain natural resources and bring widespread misery. Dismal, indeed.
But this origin myth is, well, mythical. Carlyle did coin the phrase "the dismal science." And Malthus was, without question, dismal.

But Carlyle labeled the science "dismal" when writing about slavery in the West Indies. White plantation owners, he said, ought to force black plantation workers to be their servants.

Economics, somewhat inconveniently for Carlyle, didn't offer a hearty defense of slavery. Instead, the rules of supply and demand argued for "letting men alone" rather than thrashing them with whips for not being servile. Carlyle bashed political economy as "a dreary, desolate, and indeed quite abject and distressing [science]; what we might call ... the dismal science.

Today, when we hear the term "the dismal science," it's typically in reference to economics' most depressing outcomes (e.g.: on globalization killing manufacturing jobs: "well, that's why they call it the dismal science," etc). In other words, we've tended to align ourselves with Carlyle to acknowledge that an inescapable element of economics is human misery.

But the right etymology turns that interpretation on its head. In fact, it aligns economics with morality, and against racism, rather than with misery, and against happiness. Carlyle couldn't find a justification for slavery in political economic thought, and he considered this fact to be "dismal." Students of economics should be proud: Their "science" was then (as it can be, today) a force for a more just and, crucially, less dismal world."

Friday, April 10, 2026

The Seasonally Adjusted CPI Was up 0.865% in March

Here are the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPI for the six months ending in Dec: 

Aug 0.3483%
Sept. 0.2951% (There was no report for October due to the government shutdown)
Nov. 0.2523% (change from Sept)
Dec. 0.2978%
Jan. 0.1708%
Feb. 0.2670
 
The last decline was March 2025 when it was -0.0500%. Before that it was June 2024 when it was -0.0029%.

See Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for data on the seasonally adjusted CPI.

That site shows a graph but if you click on the Download button you will get the actual numbers in Microsoft Excel.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL) was 327.460 in Feb. and 330.293 in March. Since 330.293/327.460 = 1.00865, that means it was up 0.865%. If we had that every month for 12 months it would be up 10.89%.

It was 319.785 in March 2025. Since 330.293/319.785 = 1.0329, that means it was up 3.29% over the last 12 months.

The non-seasonally adjusted CPI was 330.213 in March and 319.799 in March 2025. That was up 3.26%. So pretty close to the seasonally adjusted CPI. This is still above the Fed's target of 2.0% (although they prefer to use the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index which was 2.8% higher in Feb. 2026 than Feb. 2025). 

For more information see Consumer prices rose 3.3% in March, as energy prices spiked due to Iran conflict by Jeff Cox of CNBC. Excerpt: 
"The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.9% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3.3%, pushed by a 10.9% surge in energy costs. Both numbers were in line with the Dow Jones consensus. The annual rate was the highest since April 2024 and up from 2.4% in February. 

However, excluding food and energy, core prices rose much less – just 0.2% for the month and 2.6% from a year ago, both 0.1 percentage point below forecast, indicating that underlying inflation was contained. There even were even pockets of outright price declines, as medical care, personal care, and used cars and trucks all fell during the month.

The Iran conflict was the story for the monthly inflation reading, as gasoline soared 21.2%, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the headline price increase, according to the BLS.

The article also discusses what types of products are going up in price and what is going down. There is a graph of the monthly year-over-year percent change in prices and core prices going back almost 4 years."  

The article also discusses what types of products are going up in price and what is going down. There is a graph of the monthly year-over-year percent change in prices and core prices going back almost 4 years.   

Related material: 

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in U.S. City Average (CPILFESL) This is also from from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. It has the seasonally adjusted core CPI.
 
 
 
The Bureau of Labor Statistics makes seasonal adjustments. See Consumer Price Index Summary.
 
The table below has the annual inflation rate since 1914 in the columns labeled CPI %Ch. or CPI percentage change. It is from Consumer Price Index Data from 1913 to 2026 and is not seasonally adjusted. It is also the December to December change in the CPI. That site also looks at how the 12 month average for the CPI changed from one year to the next.
 

Year

CPI %Ch.

 

Year

CPI %Ch.

 

Year

CPI %Ch.

 

Year

CPI %Ch.

1914

1

 

1944

2.3

 

1974

12.3

 

2004

3.3

1915

2

 

1945

2.2

 

1975

6.9

 

2005

3.4

1916

12.6

 

1946

18.1

 

1976

4.9

 

2006

2.5

1917

18.1

 

1947

8.8

 

1977

6.7

 

2007

4.1

1918

20.4

 

1948

3

 

1978

9

 

2008

0.1

1919

14.5

 

1949

-2.1

 

1979

13.3

 

2009

2.7

1920

2.6

 

1950

5.9

 

1980

12.5

 

2010

1.5

1921

-10.8

 

1951

6

 

1981

8.9

 

2011

3

1922

-2.3

 

1952

0.8

 

1982

3.8

 

2012

1.7

1923

2.4

 

1953

0.7

 

1983

3.8

 

2013

1.5

1924

0

 

1954

-0.7

 

1984

3.9

 

2014

0.8

1925

3.5

 

1955

0.4

 

1985

3.8

 

2015

0.7

1926

-1.1

 

1956

3

 

1986

1.1

 

2016

2.1

1927

-2.3

 

1957

2.9

 

1987

4.4

 

2017

2.1

1928

-1.2

 

1958

1.8

 

1988

4.4

 

2018

1.9

1929

0.6

 

1959

1.7

 

1989

4.6

 

2019

2.3

1930

-6.4

 

1960

1.4

 

1990

6.1

 

2020

1.4

1931

-9.3

 

1961

0.7

 

1991

3.1

 

2021

7

1932

-10.3

 

1962

1.3

 

1992

2.9

 

2022

6.5

1933

0.8

 

1963

1.6

 

1993

2.7

 

2023

3.4

1934

1.5

 

1964

1

 

1994

2.7

 

2024

2.9

1935

3

 

1965

1.9

 

1995

2.5

 

         2025    

          2.7

1936

1.4

 

1966

3.5

 

1996

3.3

 

 

 

1937

2.9

 

1967

3

 

1997

1.7

 

 

 

1938

-2.8

 

1968

4.7

 

1998

1.6

 

 

 

1939

0

 

1969

6.2

 

1999

2.7

 

 

 

1940

0.7

 

1970

5.6

 

2000

3.4

 

 

 

1941

9.9

 

1971

3.3

 

2001

1.6

 

 

 

1942

9

 

1972

3.4

 

2002

2.4

 

 

 

1943

3

 

1973

8.7

 

2003

1.9

 

 

 

 
Here is a timeline graph of this data: