Wednesday, November 11, 2026

Celebrating Russian Novelist Fyodor Dostoevsky

Nov. 11 is his birthday. One of his famous books is Crime and Punishment.

Below are some passages that relate to economics and one sounds like the invisible hand.  All of the passages can be found at https://www.gutenberg.org/files/2554/2554-h/2554-h.htm.

From Part I, Chapter 2:

"But Mr. Lebeziatnikov who keeps up with modern ideas explained the other day that compassion is forbidden nowadays by science itself, and that that's what is done now in England, where there is political economy." (economics used to be called political economy)"

From Part II, Chapter 5:

"if I were told, 'love thy neighbour,' what came of it?" Pyotr Petrovitch went on, perhaps with excessive haste. "It came to my tearing my coat in half to share with my neighbour and we both were left half naked. As a Russian proverb has it, 'Catch several hares and you won't catch one.' Science now tells us, love yourself before all men, for everything in the world rests on self-interest. You love yourself and manage your own affairs properly and your coat remains whole. Economic truth adds that the better private affairs are organised in society--the more whole coats, so to say—the firmer are its foundations and the better is the common welfare organised too. Therefore, in acquiring wealth solely and exclusively for myself, I am acquiring, so to speak, for all, and helping to bring to pass my neighbour's getting a little more than a torn coat; and that not from private, personal liberality, but as a consequence of the general advance." The idea is simple, but unhappily it has been a long time reaching us, being hindered by idealism and sentimentality. And yet it would seem to want very little wit to perceive it."

From Part III, Chapter 5:

"“Not quite, that’s true,” Razumihin agreed at once, getting warm and hurried as usual. “Listen, Rodion, and tell us your opinion, I want to hear it. I was fighting tooth and nail with them and wanted you to help me. I told them you were coming.… It began with the socialist doctrine. You know their doctrine; crime is a protest against the abnormality of the social organisation and nothing more, and nothing more; no other causes admitted!…”

“You are wrong there,” cried Porfiry Petrovitch; he was noticeably animated and kept laughing as he looked at Razumihin, which made him more excited than ever.

“Nothing is admitted,” Razumihin interrupted with heat. “I am not wrong. I’ll show you their pamphlets. Everything with them is ‘the influence of environment,’ and nothing else. Their favourite phrase! From which it follows that, if society is normally organised, all crime will cease at once, since there will be nothing to protest against and all men will become righteous in one instant. Human nature is not taken into account, it is excluded, it’s not supposed to exist! They don’t recognise that humanity, developing by a historical living process, will become at last a normal society, but they believe that a social system that has come out of some mathematical brain is going to organise all humanity at once and make it just and sinless in an instant, quicker than any living process! That’s why they instinctively dislike history, ‘nothing but ugliness and stupidity in it,’ and they explain it all as stupidity! That’s why they so dislike the living process of life; they don’t and a living soul! The living soul demands life, the soul won’t obey the rules of mechanics, the soul is an object of suspicion, the soul is retrograde! But what they want though it smells of death and can be made of india-rubber, at least is not alive, has no will, is servile and won’t revolt! And it comes in the end to their reducing everything to the building of walls and the planning of rooms and passages in a phalanstery! The phalanstery is ready, indeed, but your human nature is not ready for the phalanstery—it wants life, it hasn’t completed its vital process, it’s too soon for the graveyard! You can’t skip over nature by logic. Logic presupposes three possibilities, but there are millions! Cut away a million, and reduce it all to the question of comfort! That’s the easiest solution of the problem! It’s seductively clear and you mustn’t think about it. That’s the great thing, you mustn’t think! The whole secret of life in two pages of print!”

“Now he is off, beating the drum! Catch hold of him, do!” laughed Porfiry. “Can you imagine,” he turned to Raskolnikov, “six people holding forth like that last night, in one room, with punch as a preliminary! No, brother, you are wrong, environment accounts for a great deal in crime; I can assure you of that.”

“Oh, I know it does, but just tell me: a man of forty violates a child of ten; was it environment drove him to it?”

“Well, strictly speaking, it did,” Porfiry observed with noteworthy gravity; “a crime of that nature may be very well ascribed to the influence of environment.”"

To see what phalanstery is go to Phalanstère at Wikipedia. Excerpt:

"A phalanstère (or phalanstery) was a type of building designed for a self-contained utopian community, ideally consisting of 500–2,000 people working together for mutual benefit, and developed in the early 19th century by Charles Fourier. Fourier chose the name by combining the French word phalange (phalanx, an emblematic military unit in ancient Greece), with the word monastère (monastery)."

Tuesday, November 10, 2026

The Seasonally Adjusted CPI Was Up 0.3503% in October

Here are the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPI for the six months ending in Sept.: 

April 0.6400%
May 0.4729%
June -0.4220%
July 0.0737%
Aug. 0.3960%
Sept. 0.649%% 
 
See Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for data on the seasonally adjusted CPI.  

That site shows a graph but if you click on the Download button you will get the actual numbers in Microsoft Excel.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL) was 336.298 in Sept. and 337.476 in Oct. Since 337.476/336.298 = 1.003503, that means it was up 0.3503%. If we had that every month for 12 months the CPI would be up 4.29%. 

There was no CPI report in Oct. 2025 because of the government shutdown. So I took the average of Sept. and Nov. of 2025 to get 324.654. There is no guarantee that it would have been higher in Oct. than Sept. because sometimes the CPI does go down in a given month. But most months it does increase.

Using 324.654 as an estimate for Oct. 2025 then 337.476/324.654 = 1.0395. That means it would be up 3.95% over the last 12 months. 

If I do a similar estimate for the the non-seasonally adjusted CPI it would be up 4.02%. So pretty close to the seasonally adjusted CPI. This is well above the Fed's target of 2.0% (although they prefer to use the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index which was 3.6% higher in Sept. 2026 than Sept. 2025). 

For more information see Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, more than expected, complicating Fed’s inflation fight by Jeff Cox of CNBC. Excerpt:

"Costs for goods and services rose more than expected in October, providing fresh warning signs for the Federal Reserve in its fight to lower inflation.

The consumer price index, a broad gauge of costs across the U.S. economy, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% increase.

Stripping out volatile food and energy, so-called core CPI increased 0.3% against the forecast for a 0.2% gain.

The headline CPI had increased 0.6% in September while core was up 0.3%.

The report comes at a critical juncture for the Federal Reserve as it considers its next interest-rate move. Speaking Tuesday morning in London ahead of the CPI release, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a hot inflation report could push him toward advocating for a half-point increase in December, and specifically said such a hike should be on the table if core CPI was “around 0.3.”" 

The article also discusses what types of products are going up in price and what is going down. 

Related material: 

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in U.S. City Average (CPILFESL) This is also from from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. It has the seasonally adjusted core CPI.
 
 
 
The Bureau of Labor Statistics makes seasonal adjustments. See Consumer Price Index Summary.
 
The table below has the annual inflation rate since 1914 in the columns labeled CPI %Ch. or CPI percentage change. It is from Consumer Price Index Data from 1913 to 2026 and is not seasonally adjusted. It is also the December to December change in the CPI. That site also looks at how the 12 month average for the CPI changed from one year to the next.
 

Year

CPI %Ch.

 

Year

CPI %Ch.

 

Year

CPI %Ch.

 

Year

CPI %Ch.

1914

1

 

1944

2.3

 

1974

12.3

 

2004

3.3

1915

2

 

1945

2.2

 

1975

6.9

 

2005

3.4

1916

12.6

 

1946

18.1

 

1976

4.9

 

2006

2.5

1917

18.1

 

1947

8.8

 

1977

6.7

 

2007

4.1

1918

20.4

 

1948

3

 

1978

9

 

2008

0.1

1919

14.5

 

1949

-2.1

 

1979

13.3

 

2009

2.7

1920

2.6

 

1950

5.9

 

1980

12.5

 

2010

1.5

1921

-10.8

 

1951

6

 

1981

8.9

 

2011

3

1922

-2.3

 

1952

0.8

 

1982

3.8

 

2012

1.7

1923

2.4

 

1953

0.7

 

1983

3.8

 

2013

1.5

1924

0

 

1954

-0.7

 

1984

3.9

 

2014

0.8

1925

3.5

 

1955

0.4

 

1985

3.8

 

2015

0.7

1926

-1.1

 

1956

3

 

1986

1.1

 

2016

2.1

1927

-2.3

 

1957

2.9

 

1987

4.4

 

2017

2.1

1928

-1.2

 

1958

1.8

 

1988

4.4

 

2018

1.9

1929

0.6

 

1959

1.7

 

1989

4.6

 

2019

2.3

1930

-6.4

 

1960

1.4

 

1990

6.1

 

2020

1.4

1931

-9.3

 

1961

0.7

 

1991

3.1

 

2021

7

1932

-10.3

 

1962

1.3

 

1992

2.9

 

2022

6.5

1933

0.8

 

1963

1.6

 

1993

2.7

 

2023

3.4

1934

1.5

 

1964

1

 

1994

2.7

 

2024

2.9

1935

3

 

1965

1.9

 

1995

2.5

 

         2025    

          2.7

1936

1.4

 

1966

3.5

 

1996

3.3

 

 

 

1937

2.9

 

1967

3

 

1997

1.7

 

 

 

1938

-2.8

 

1968

4.7

 

1998

1.6

 

 

 

1939

0

 

1969

6.2

 

1999

2.7

 

 

 

1940

0.7

 

1970

5.6

 

2000

3.4

 

 

 

1941

9.9

 

1971

3.3

 

2001

1.6

 

 

 

1942

9

 

1972

3.4

 

2002

2.4

 

 

 

1943

3

 

1973

8.7

 

2003

1.9

 

 

 

 
Here is a timeline graph of this data: