Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Conflicting opinions from economists on the value of giving gifts

The battle seems to be over inefficiency (spending money on items others might not want) vs. the idea that if you spent money on someone it is a believable signal that they care about you or having a relationship with you. A program on PBS recently stated that one of the more common gifts that King Henry the VIII got at Christmas was money.

See Holiday shopping? Consider the most economically efficient gift of all: cash, and avoid the deadweight loss of Christmas by Mark J. Perry. Excerpt:
"2. In a 1993 American Economic Review article “The Deadweight Loss of Christmas,” Yale economist Joel Waldfogel concluded that holiday gift-giving destroys a significant portion of the retail value of the gifts given. Reason? The best outcome that gift-givers can achieve is to duplicate the choices that the gift-recipient would have made on his or her own with the cash-equivalent of the gift. In reality, it’s highly certain that many gifts given will not perfectly match the recipient’s own personal tastes and preferences, or it might be the wrong size, color, or style.  

In those cases, the recipient will be worse off with the sub-optimal gift selected by the gift-giver than if the recipient was given cash and allowed to choose his or her own gift. Because many Christmas/holiday gifts are mismatched with the preferences of the recipients, Waldfogel concludes that holiday gift-giving generates a significant economic “deadweight loss” of between one-tenth and one-third of the retail value of the gifts purchased."
See Gift Giving Is Better for Society than Economists Think by Michael Thomas Tony and Anthony Gill. Excerpt:
"A newcomer often is welcomed into a household with a large feast containing more food than can be reasonably consumed. Engagement and wedding rings are expensive signals of a prospective spouse’s fidelity in good times and bad. Clubs, fraternities, and religious organizations often require individuals to go through rigorous rituals to prove their loyalty before gaining the benefits that full membership entails.

So it is with gift giving for holidays and other occasions. Giving gifts, even ones filled with the deadweight loss of mismatched preferences, indicates that one is willing to forego resources in the present in order to maintain a relationship in the future. When times get tough for you, I will assure you that I will be there to sacrifice again. Knowing that I am willing to sacrifice for you makes you more willing to want to continue engaging with me. Your reciprocal sacrifice helps solidify the mutual trust to make a relationship work effectively.

Societies around the world have ritualized these times of “burnt offerings” as a way of communicating trust and a desire to enter into, or remain in, a social network. We learn to gift within our families in the hope that such generosity will translate itself in the broader society.

Gifting: The Gift that Keeps on Giving

Prof. Waldfogel and other economists who rue the inefficiency of holiday gift giving only see the costs and benefits in static terms. The real benefits are dynamic and embedded in the deadweight losses, ironically. By continually showing, through gifts small and large, our willingness to sacrifice for one another we build a cultural fabric of trust and willingness to assist in times of need. Norms of sacrifice, trust, and graciousness are crucial for the functioning of broad-based markets over long periods of time. Our willingness to give and to reciprocate graciously when receiving is what makes us wealthier over time."

Related posts:

How Capitalism Saved Christmas

Why Did Charles Dickens write A Christmas Carol? (Money might have been a big factor)

Use Data to Buy Gifts 

Is Christmas Gift Giving Inefficient?

Are Homemade Gifts Better Or More Special?

What Anthropologist Melvin Konner Fails To See When He Criticizes Economists And Their Views On Gift Giving   

What Anthropologist Melvin Konner Fails To See When He Criticizes Economists And Their Views On Gift Giving

 See What Economists Fail to See in the Act of Gift-Giving: New research suggests why holiday gifts—unlike purchases for oneself—have a value far higher than some economists previously thought from the WSJ. Here is a letter I submitted to the WSJ:

"Melvin Konner takes economists to task because they ignore the fact that gifts symbolize your friendship with someone else and instead focus only on their efficiency ("What Economists Fail to See in the Act of Gift-Giving," Dec. 5.) He argued that gifts have sentimental value, too. That may be true, but we could just as easily see gift giving as an example of what economists call signals. If I spend money on a gift for you, that signals that I am willing to incur a cost to show to you that I am truly your friend. You would not spend money on another person if you did not think you were friends. Konner actually hints at this when he says we feel cheated if we give gifts to a friend but they never reciprocate. Their not spending money on us signals their lack of feelings for us."

To me, just the very fact that we spend money to prove to another person that we are their friend shows that economics is a very significant part of gift giving. Konner did not mention this possibility at all. 

Related posts:

How Capitalism Saved Christmas

Why Did Charles Dickens write A Christmas Carol? (Money might have been a big factor)

Conflicting opinions from economists on the value of giving gifts

Use Data to Buy Gifts 

Is Christmas Gift Giving Inefficient?

Are Homemade Gifts Better Or More Special?  

Are Homemade Gifts Better Or More Special?

That is what world renown economist Daniel Hamermesh says. The article is A homemade Christmas. Here is the relevant passage, which says that making your gifts is

"...an option that is not only cheaper but shows care and thoughtfulness, said Daniel Hamermesh, an economics professor at the University of Texas at Austin and author of “Economics Is Everywhere.” Hamermesh said studies have shown gifts typically cost more than they are worth to the people who receive them, information that should, but often doesn't, tone down frenzied Christmas shopping behavior.

“There is too much compulsion (at Christmas) to buy something nobody wants,” Hamermesh said. “If the point is to ... show that you care, you would do better (to make something) than spend the money.”"
The point Hamermesh makes about gifts costing more than they are worth to the people who receive them is something I discussed a few weeks ago with Is Christmas Gift Giving Inefficient?.

But just because you take the time to make something does not necessarily show that you care more than if, say, you took the time to earn extra money so you could buy a nice gift for someone. Why would taking time to earn money to buy a gift be less worthy or special than taking time to make a gift? And what if you are not good at hand crafts? Or what if your time is valuable? Do we really want President Obama taking a long time to sew his wife a dress?

Economist Steven E. Landsburg had some interesting things to say about gift giving in his book The Armchair Economist: Economics & Everyday Life. From chapter 2:
"I am not sure why people give each oher store-bought gifts instead of cash, which is never the wrong size or color. Some say that we give gifts because it shows that we took the time to shop. But we could accomplish the same thing by giving the cash value of our shopping time, showing that we took the time to earn the money. 
My friend David Friedman suggests that we give gifts for exactly the opposite reason-because we want to announce that we did not take much time to shop. If I really care for you, I probably know enough about your tastes to have an easy time finding the right gift. If I care less about you, finding the right gift becomes a major chore. Because you know that my shopping time is limited, the fact that I was able to find something appropriate reveals that I care. I like this theory."

I think it might also mean that you cared enough to get to know the person in the first place.

Related posts:

How Capitalism Saved Christmas

Why Did Charles Dickens write A Christmas Carol? (Money might have been a big factor)

What Anthropologist Melvin Konner Fails To See When He Criticizes Economists And Their Views On Gift Giving  

Conflicting opinions from economists on the value of giving gifts

Use Data to Buy Gifts 

Is Christmas Gift Giving Inefficient?  

Monday, December 22, 2025

Is Christmas Gift Giving Inefficient?

In 1993, Yale economics professor Joel Waldfogel published an article titled The deadweight loss of Christmas. The idea is that gift recipients often place a lower dollar value on the item than its actual price. Maybe someone buys you a tie for $20 that you would pay no more than $5 for. So the inefficiency or deadweight loss is $15. Waldfogel estimated that in 1992, the inefficiency or deadweight loss in the United States from Christmas was anywhere between $4 billion and $13 billion.

Not everyone agrees with this. The article Christmas gift giving: a deadweight loss? from Business World mentions:
"the process of gift giving adds value to a gift over and above its retail price. Giving a gift instead of cash says the giver bothered to know what the receiver might want. There are times, in fact, when gifts that weren’t wished for turn out to be most valued. A thing one would not have thought of buying himself might end up a pleasant surprise. Or, an item the recipient might have had money to spend on but never bought for frugal reasons could also turn out to be a gift valued more than its price."
An article from the Economist magazine, "Is Santa a deadweight loss?: Are all those Christmas gifts just a waste of resources?, raised the question "So should economists advocate an end to gift-giving?" Here is the answer they provided:
"There are a number of reasons to think not. First, recipients may not know their own preferences very well. Some of the best gifts, after all, are the unexpected items that you would never have thought of buying, but which turn out to be especially well picked. And preferences can change. So by giving a jazz CD, for example, the giver may be encouraging the recipient to enjoy something that was shunned before. This, and a desire to build skills, is presumably the hope held by the many parents who ignore their children's pleas for video games and buy them books instead.

Second, the giver may have access to items—because of travel or an employee discount, for example—that the recipient does not know existed, cannot buy, or can only buy at a higher price. Finally, there are items that a recipient would like to receive but not purchase. If someone else buys them, however, they can be enjoyed guilt-free. This might explain the high volume of chocolate that changes hands over the holidays.

But there is a more powerful argument for gift-giving, deliberately ignored by most surveys. Gift-giving, some economists think, is a process that adds value to an item over and above what it would otherwise be worth to the recipient. Intuition backs this up, of course. A gift's worth is not only a function of its price, but also of the giver and the circumstances in which it is given.

Hence a wedding ring is more valuable to its owner than to a jeweller, and the imprint of a child's hand on dried clay is priceless to a loving grandparent. Moreover, not only can gift-giving add value for the recipient, but it can be fun for the giver too. It is good, in other words, to give as well as to receive."

Related posts:

How Capitalism Saved Christmas

Why Did Charles Dickens write A Christmas Carol? (Money might have been a big factor)

Are Homemade Gifts Better Or More Special?

What Melvin Anthropologist Konner Fails To See When He Criticizes Economists And Their Views On Gift Giving  

Conflicting opinions from economists on the value of giving gifts

Use Data to Buy Gifts 

Here is an old Dilbert strip

 - Dilbert by Scott Adams

Use Data to Buy Gifts

See You’re Choosing a Gift. Here’s What Not to Do: Many of our natural impulses turn out to be wrong. Psychological research can help us choose wisely. By Daniel T. Willingham, is a psychologist at the University of Virginia. Excerpts:

"When researchers asked people to recall a gift they . . . had received, price was completely unrelated to enjoyment."

"Givers might favor the beautiful and dramatic because they think about gifts in the abstract: “What’s a good gift?” Recipients, in contrast, imagine themselves using it, and so focus more on utility.

That’s why people buying gift cards for others often prefer luxury brands over everyday brands, but the preference reverses when they are buying for themselves. Indeed, a study examined the prices that resold gift cards commanded on eBay, and showed that people were willing to pay around $77 for a $100 gift card to a more expensive store (for example, Bloomingdale’s), but would pay around $89 for a $100 gift card to an everyday establishment (for example, Lowe’s)."

"Givers didn’t like the idea of giving someone half the money to buy a high-end blender, preferring to give a medium-priced model outright. Recipients showed the opposite preference."

"give people what they ask for. Gift givers think that unexpectedness adds value because it shows thoughtfulness; the wife wasn’t expecting diamonds, but the husband knew she’d love them. But recipients actually think it’s more thoughtful to give a gift that they requested. They see it as showing that the giver attended to and honored their wishes."

"give experiences, not things."

"people don’t mind waiting. Research over the last decade shows that experiences lead to more long-lasting satisfaction than new possessions: A family vacation is a better bet than that diamond necklace."

"Make sure there are choices. Instead of giving a massage, give a gift certificate to a spa that offers a range of services."

Related posts:

See You’re Choosing a Gift. Here’s What Not to Do: Many of our natural impulses turn out to be wrong. Psychological research can help us choose wisely. By Daniel T. Willingham, is a psychologist at the University of Virginia. Excerpts:

"When researchers asked people to recall a gift they . . . had received, price was completely unrelated to enjoyment."

"Givers might favor the beautiful and dramatic because they think about gifts in the abstract: “What’s a good gift?” Recipients, in contrast, imagine themselves using it, and so focus more on utility.

That’s why people buying gift cards for others often prefer luxury brands over everyday brands, but the preference reverses when they are buying for themselves. Indeed, a study examined the prices that resold gift cards commanded on eBay, and showed that people were willing to pay around $77 for a $100 gift card to a more expensive store (for example, Bloomingdale’s), but would pay around $89 for a $100 gift card to an everyday establishment (for example, Lowe’s)."

"Givers didn’t like the idea of giving someone half the money to buy a high-end blender, preferring to give a medium-priced model outright. Recipients showed the opposite preference."

"give people what they ask for. Gift givers think that unexpectedness adds value because it shows thoughtfulness; the wife wasn’t expecting diamonds, but the husband knew she’d love them. But recipients actually think it’s more thoughtful to give a gift that they requested. They see it as showing that the giver attended to and honored their wishes."

"give experiences, not things."

"people don’t mind waiting. Research over the last decade shows that experiences lead to more long-lasting satisfaction than new possessions: A family vacation is a better bet than that diamond necklace."

"Make sure there are choices. Instead of giving a massage, give a gift certificate to a spa that offers a range of services."

Related posts:

How Capitalism Saved Christmas

Why Did Charles Dickens write A Christmas Carol? (Money might have been a big factor)

Is Christmas Gift Giving Inefficient?

Are Homemade Gifts Better Or More Special?

What Melvin Anthropologist Konner Fails To See When He Criticizes Economists And Their Views On Gift Giving  

Conflicting opinions from economists on the value of giving gifts

Sunday, December 21, 2025

How Capitalism Saved Christmas

The commercialization of the holiday, a familiar lament this time of year, helped rescue Christmas from the grip of violent street gangs

By Jason Zweig of The WSJ. Economists talk about how gift giving can be inefficient (see related posts linked below). But if the emphasis on gift giving reduced the chaos caused by the gangs, maybe it it is worth it (or not quite so inefficient). Excerpts:

"Everyone seems to complain about how Christmas has been commercialized. But without the business of gift-giving that sprang up in the 19th century, Christmas might still be what it once was for many people: a riotous bacchanalia in which drunken gangs brawled in the streets and bashed their way into houses demanding money and alcohol.

With the hard work of the harvest behind them, December was downtime for Americans, as it had been for Europeans as far back as the raucous Saturnalias of ancient Rome. The Puritans were so offended by the disorder surrounding Christmas that celebrating the holiday—by feasting, “playing either at cards or at dice,” or even just taking the day off from work—was illegal in Massachusetts from 1659 to 1681. The fine was five shillings, roughly $50 in today’s money."

"In the 1800s, at Christmastime in cities like Boston, New York and Philadelphia, gangs of drunk young men, dressed in outrageous disguises, marauded through the nighttime streets, often setting off firecrackers, lighting fires or shooting guns in the air."

"These gangs were called “mummers” and “fantasticals” for their flamboyant costumes or “callithumpians” for the rough music they banged out on pots, pans and other makeshift instruments. Rampaging from house to house, the mobs might smash windows, tear down fences or wrench the handles off doors if homeowners wouldn’t let them in.

Once inside, they helped themselves to food, commandeered alcohol, spit tobacco on the carpets and wiped their greasy hands on the curtains. Not even the watchmen hired by local residents could deter them."

"“As soon as Santa Claus entered the picture,” says Prof. Nissenbaum, “people had to go shopping.” Santa Claus was part of a broader movement to domesticate the holiday by creating a warm, comforting family event centered around giving gifts to children. Mayors, merchants and the middle class all wanted to get the violent Christmastime gangs off the streets.

“There’s a general taming of the holiday that goes on throughout the 19th century,” says Penne Restad, author of “Christmas in America” and a retired historian at the University of Texas, Austin. The mass marketing of Christmas gifts, she says, was “a way of creating boundaries.”

"As the holiday became about giving gifts to family and friends, rather than about seizing food and drink from strangers, the seasonal street gangs faded away."

Related posts:

Why Did Charles Dickens write A Christmas Carol? (Money might have been a big factor)

Is Christmas Gift Giving Inefficient?

Are Homemade Gifts Better Or More Special?

What Melvin Anthropologist Konner Fails To See When He Criticizes Economists And Their Views On Gift Giving  

Conflicting opinions from economists on the value of giving gifts

Use Data to Buy Gifts

Why Did Charles Dickens write A Christmas Carol?

Money might have been a big factor. A Christmas Carol

See The Writer's Almanac with Garrison Keillor. Excerpt:

"It was on this day in 1843 (Dec. 19) that Charles Dickens published A Christmas Carol. Dickens wrote the novel after his first commercial failure. His previous novel, Martin Chuzzlewit (1842) had flopped, and he was suddenly strapped for cash. Martin Chuzzlewit had been satirical and pessimistic, and Dickens thought he might be more successful if he wrote a heartwarming tale with a holiday theme.

He got the idea for the book in late October of 1843, the story of the heartless Ebenezer Scrooge, who has so little Christmas spirit that he wants his assistant Bob Cratchit to work on Christmas Day.

Dickens struggled to finish the book in time for Christmas. He no longer had a publisher so he published the book himself, ordering illustrations, gilt-edged pages and a lavish red bound cover. He priced the book at a mere 5 shillings, in hopes of making it affordable to everyone. It was released within a week of Christmas and was a huge success, selling six thousand copies the first few days, and the demand was so great that it quickly went to second and third editions.

At the time, Christmas was on the decline and not celebrated much. England was in the midst of an Industrial Revolution and most people were incredibly poor, having to work as much as 16 hour days, 6 days a week. Most people couldn't afford to celebrate Christmas, and Puritans believed it was a sin to do so. They felt that celebrating Christmas too extravagantly would be an insult to Christ. The famous American preacher Henry Ward Beecher said that Christmas was a "foreign day" and he wouldn't even recognize it.

When Dickens's novel became a huge bestseller in both the United States and England, A Christmas Carol reminded many people of the old Christmas traditions that had been dying out since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, of cooking a feast, spending time with family, and spreading warmth and cheer. Dickens helped people return to the old ways of Christmas. He went on to write a Christmas story every year, but none endured as well as A Christmas Carol."

Related posts:

How Capitalism Saved Christmas

Is Christmas Gift Giving Inefficient?

Are Homemade Gifts Better Or More Special?

What Melvin Anthropologist Konner Fails To See When He Criticizes Economists And Their Views On Gift Giving  

Conflicting opinions from economists on the value of giving gifts

Use Data to Buy Gifts

Saturday, December 20, 2025

Adam Smith And Joseph Campbell On The Dangers Of "The Man Of System"

Here is a passage from The Theory of Moral Sentiments by Smith (author of the book The Wealth of Nations in 1776 that started economics) at the Library of Economics and Liberty. Smith emphasizes the arrogance and conceit of those who think they can arrange society any way they want. In a separate passage, Smith writes about how this can be dangerous (that follows this longer excerpt). First, Smith discusses the man of humanity and benevolence, then the man of system for contrast. Then I have some quotes that are similar from Campbell (author of the book on mythology The Hero With a Thousand Faces that was one of George Lucas's inspiration for Star Wars).

"The man whose public spirit is prompted altogether by humanity and benevolence, will respect the established powers and privileges even of individuals, and still more those of the great orders and societies, into which the state is divided. Though he should consider some of them as in some measure abusive, he will content himself with moderating, what he often cannot annihilate without great violence. When he cannot conquer the rooted prejudices of the people by reason and persuasion, he will not attempt to subdue them by force; but will religiously observe what, by Cicero, is justly called the divine maxim of Plato, never to use violence to his country no more than to his parents. He will accommodate, as well as he can, his public arrangements to the confirmed habits and prejudices of the people; and will remedy as well as he can, the inconveniencies which may flow from the want of those regulations which the people are averse to submit to. When he cannot establish the right, he will not disdain to ameliorate the wrong; but like Solon, when he cannot establish the best system of laws, he will endeavour to establish the best that the people can bear.
VI.II.42
The man of system, on the contrary, is apt to be very wise in his own conceit; and is often so enamoured with the supposed beauty of his own ideal plan of government, that he cannot suffer the smallest deviation from any part of it. He goes on to establish it completely and in all its parts, without any regard either to the great interests, or to the strong prejudices which may oppose it. He seems to imagine that he can arrange the different members of a great society with as much ease as the hand arranges the different pieces upon a chess-board. He does not consider that the pieces upon the chess-board have no other principle of motion besides that which the hand impresses upon them; but that, in the great chess-board of human society, every single piece has a principle of motion of its own, altogether different from that which the legislature might chuse to impress upon it. If those two principles coincide and act in the same direction, the game of human society will go on easily and harmoniously, and is very likely to be happy and successful. If they are opposite or different, the game will go on miserably, and the society must be at all times in the highest degree of disorder.
VI.II.43
Some general, and even systematical, idea of the perfection of policy and law, may no doubt be necessary for directing the views of the statesman. But to insist upon establishing, and upon establishing all at once, and in spite of all opposition, every thing which that idea may seem to require, must often be the highest degree of arrogance."
Adam Smith also says in his book The Theory of Moral Sentiments:
"The natural course of things cannot be entirely controlled by the impotent endeavours of man: the current is too rapid and too strong for him to stop it; and though the rules which direct it appear to have been established for the wisest and best purposes, they sometimes produce effects which shock all his natural sentiments."
The "effects which shock all his natural sentiments" are the unintended consequences of man trying to impose his will on society. He can't know all the effects of all the changes he his bringing to a complex system.

Here is what Campbell has to say. This is from the book The Power of Myth (some parts might only be in the video version of the interview Campbell did with Bill Moyers upon which the book was base):

Campbell condemns "the man of system."  He states this clearly while speaking of the character Darth Vader from the Star Wars movie trilogy.  He is critical of him being an "executive of a system" who has no humanity. The man of system is a government planner, a bureaucrat who wishes to impose his own ideals on society.  Campbell mentions what he thinks is a good Oriental idea:  "You don't force your mission down people's throats." (recall that Smith says the man of benevolence respects individuals, and will not attempt to subdue them by force) Also, "Instead of clearing his own heart, the zealot tries to clear the world." (Smith refers to "furious zealots" who have contempt for open minded people)   Both Campbell and Smith fear the planner who will force his system on the rest of us.  Campbell's views on this are best expressed in his comments on Darth Vader, the evil dark lord of the Star Wars movie trilogy.

"Darth Vader has not developed his own humanity.  He's a robot.  He's a bureaucrat living not in terms of himself but in terms of an imposed system.  This is the threat that we all face today.  Is the system going to flatten you out and deny you your humanity, or are you going to be able to make use of the system so that you are not compulsively serving it?  It doesn't help to try to change it to accord with your system of thought.  The momentum of history behind it is too great for anything really significant to evolve from that kind of action" (this is like Smith saying the current is too strong to be stopped by the impotent endeavours of man)


This is all seen much more clearly in an exchange between Campbell and Moyers from the second televised segment of The Power of Myth called "The Message of the Myth": 
Moyers:  Do you see some of the new metaphors emerging in the modern medium for the old universal truths that you've talked about, the old story?
Campbell:  Well, I think that the Star Wars is a valid mythological perspective for the problem of is the machine-and the state is a machine (emphasis added)-is the machine going to crush humanity or serve humanity? 
And humanity comes not from the machine but from the heart. 
[As the unmasking of Darth Vader scene from the movie The Return of the Jedi  is shown, Campbell continues:]
Campbell:  The father (Darth Vader) had been playing one of these machine roles, a state role; he was the uniform, you know?  And the removal of that mask-there was an undeveloped man there.  He was kind of a worm by being the executive of a system.  One is not developing one's humanity.  I think George Lucas did a beautiful thing there.
Moyers:  The idea of machine is the idea that we want the world to be made in our image and what we think the world ought to be.
[Campbell seemed to agree or at least offered no dissent to this statement of Moyers-again, Smith says the man of system wants to impose his own plan on society, very similar to making the world in your own image]
Campbell put this in a slightly different way when he also discussed the movie Star Wars:
"Here the man (George Lucas) understands metaphor.  What I saw was things that had been in my books but rendered in terms of the modern problem, which is man and machine.  Is the machine going to be the servant of human life?  Or is it going to be master and dictate?  And the machine includes the totalitarian state, whether it is Fascist or Communist it's still the same state. And it includes things happening in this country too; the bureaucrat, the machine-man. "What a wonderful power the machine gives you-but is it going to dominate you?  That's the problem of Goethe's Faust.  It's in the last two acts of Faust, Part Two.  His pact is with Mephistopheles, the man who can furnish you the means to do anything you want.  He's the machine manufacturer.  He can manufacture the bombs, but can he give you what the human spirit wants and needs?  He can't.

This statement of what the need and want is must come from you, not from the machine, and not from the government that is teaching you (emphasis added) or not even from the clergy. It has to come from one's own inside, and the minute you let that drop and take what the dictation of the time is instead of your own eternity (recall Smith says "every single piece has a principle of motion of its own, altogether different from that which the legislature might chuse to impress upon it"), you have capitulated to the devil.  And you're in hell.
That's what I think George Lucas brought forward.  I admire what he's done immensely, immensely.  That young man opened a vista and knew how to follow it and it was totally fresh.  It seems to me that he carried that thing through very, very well" (From The Hero's Journey: Joseph Campbell on His Life and Work by Phil Cousineau).
Here is the passage from Adam Smith where he talks about "furious zealots" (also from The Theory of Moral Sentiments):

"The animosity of hostile factions, whether civil or ecclesiastical, is often still more furious than that of hostile nations; and their conduct towards one another is often still more atrocious. What may be called the laws of faction have often been laid down by grave authors with still less regard to the rules of justice than what are called the laws of nations. The most ferocious patriot never stated it as a serious question, Whether faith ought to be kept with public enemies?—Whether faith ought to be kept with rebels? Whether faith ought to be kept with heretics? are questions which have been often furiously agitated by celebrated doctors both civil and ecclesiastical. It is needless to observe, I presume, that both rebels and heretics are those unlucky persons, who, when things have come to a certain degree of violence, have the misfortune to be of the weaker party. In a nation distracted by faction, there are, no doubt, always a few, though commonly but a very few, who preserve their judgment untainted by the general contagion. They seldom amount to more than, here and there, a solitary individual, without any influence, excluded, by his own candour, from the confidence of either party, and who, though he may be one of the wisest, is necessarily, upon that very account, one of the most insignificant men in the society. All such people are held in contempt and derision, frequently in detestation, by the furious zealots of both parties. A true party-man hates and despises candour; and, in reality, there is no vice which could so effectually disqualify him for the trade of a party-man as that single virtue. The real, revered, and impartial spectator, therefore, is, upon no occasion, at a greater distance than amidst the violence and rage of contending parties. To them, it may be said, that such a spectator scarce exists any where in the universe. Even to the great Judge of the universe, they impute all their own prejudices, and often view that Divine Being as animated by all their own vindictive and implacable passions. Of all the corrupters of moral sentiments, therefore, faction and fanaticism have always been by far the greatest."

Again, Adam Smith wrote:

"He (the many of system) seems to imagine that he can arrange the different members of a great society with as much ease as the hand arranges the different pieces upon a chess-board."
This reminded me of the movie "Jason and the Argonauts." Honor Blackman (Hera) and Niall MacGinnis (Zeus) are playing a board game with pieces that represent people, gods or creatures in the story. If they move a piece on the board, the real version of that piece appears on earth and takes action and becomes part of the story. 

This picture is from IMDB

Thursday, December 18, 2025

The Seasonally Adjusted CPI Was 0.2044% Higher In November Than September (but there was spotty data collection during the government shutdown)

There was no report for October due to the government shutdown.

Here are the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPI for the six months ending in Sept: 

April 0.2209%
May  0.0810%
June 0.2870%
July 0.1966%
Aug 0.3825%
Sept. 0.3105
 
The last decline was March 2025 when it was -0.0500%. Before that it was June 2024 when it was -0.0029%.
 
See Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for data on the seasonally adjusted CPI.
 
That site shows a graph but if you click on the Download button you will get the actual numbers in Microsoft Excel.
 
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL) was 325.031 in Nov. and 324.368 in Sept. Since 325.031/324.368 = 1.002044, that means it was up 0.2044% over the two months. If we went up that much every 2 months for 12 months it would be up 1.23%.
 
It was 316.449 in Nov. 2024. Since 325.031/316.449 = 1.0271, that means it was up 2.71% over the last 12 months. 
 
The non-seasonally adjusted CPI was 324.122 in Nov. and 315.493 in Nov. 2024. That was up 2.735%. So pretty close to the seasonally adjusted CPI. This is still above the Fed's target of 2.0% (although they prefer to use the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index which was 2.8% higher in Sept. 2025 than Sept. 2024).
 
For more information see Here’s the inflation breakdown for November 2025 — in one chart by Greg Iacurci of CNBC. Excerpts:   

"Inflation slowed unexpectedly in November, as a deceleration across a range of consumer products outweighed price pressures in categories like gasoline — but economists said the numbers should be interpreted with caution due to spotty data collection during the government shutdown.

The consumer price index, a key inflation barometer, rose 2.7% in November from a year earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.

That was a slowdown from a 3% inflation rate in September, the last month of available data, and came in lower than expected."

"So-called “core” goods inflation — i.e., physical goods minus those tied to food and energy — fell to 1.4% in November from 1.5% in September, according to the Bureau’s report."

The article also discusses what types of products are going up in price and what is going down. There is a graph of the monthly year-over-year percent change in prices and core prices going back almost 4 years. 

Other related links:
 
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in U.S. City Average (CPILFESL) This is also from from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. It has the seasonally adjusted core CPI.
 
 
 
The Bureau of Labor Statistics makes seasonal adjustments. See Consumer Price Index Summary.
 
The table below has the annual inflation rate since 1914 in the columns labeled CPI %Ch. or CPI percentage change. It is from Consumer Price Index Data from 1913 to 2025 and is not seasonally adjusted. It is also the December to December change in the CPI. That site also looks at how the 12 month average for the CPI changed from one year to the next.
 

Year

CPI %Ch.

 

Year

CPI %Ch.

 

Year

CPI %Ch.

 

Year

CPI %Ch.

1914

1

 

1944

2.3

 

1974

12.3

 

2004

3.3

1915

2

 

1945

2.2

 

1975

6.9

 

2005

3.4

1916

12.6

 

1946

18.1

 

1976

4.9

 

2006

2.5

1917

18.1

 

1947

8.8

 

1977

6.7

 

2007

4.1

1918

20.4

 

1948

3

 

1978

9

 

2008

0.1

1919

14.5

 

1949

-2.1

 

1979

13.3

 

2009

2.7

1920

2.6

 

1950

5.9

 

1980

12.5

 

2010

1.5

1921

-10.8

 

1951

6

 

1981

8.9

 

2011

3

1922

-2.3

 

1952

0.8

 

1982

3.8

 

2012

1.7

1923

2.4

 

1953

0.7

 

1983

3.8

 

2013

1.5

1924

0

 

1954

-0.7

 

1984

3.9

 

2014

0.8

1925

3.5

 

1955

0.4

 

1985

3.8

 

2015

0.7

1926

-1.1

 

1956

3

 

1986

1.1

 

2016

2.1

1927

-2.3

 

1957

2.9

 

1987

4.4

 

2017

2.1

1928

-1.2

 

1958

1.8

 

1988

4.4

 

2018

1.9

1929

0.6

 

1959

1.7

 

1989

4.6

 

2019

2.3

1930

-6.4

 

1960

1.4

 

1990

6.1

 

2020

1.4

1931

-9.3

 

1961

0.7

 

1991

3.1

 

2021

7

1932

-10.3

 

1962

1.3

 

1992

2.9

 

2022

6.5

1933

0.8

 

1963

1.6

 

1993

2.7

 

2023

3.4

1934

1.5

 

1964

1

 

1994

2.7

 

2024

2.9

1935

3

 

1965

1.9

 

1995

2.5

 

 

 

1936

1.4

 

1966

3.5

 

1996

3.3

 

 

 

1937

2.9

 

1967

3

 

1997

1.7

 

 

 

1938

-2.8

 

1968

4.7

 

1998

1.6

 

 

 

1939

0

 

1969

6.2

 

1999

2.7

 

 

 

1940

0.7

 

1970

5.6

 

2000

3.4

 

 

 

1941

9.9

 

1971

3.3

 

2001

1.6

 

 

 

1942

9

 

1972

3.4

 

2002

2.4

 

 

 

1943

3

 

1973

8.7

 

2003

1.9

 

 

 

 
Here is a timeline graph of this data: