Saturday, April 26, 2025

Can Trump’s Tariff Offensive Deliver New American Jobs?

By Lauren Weber of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"Most economists and other experts are skeptical that job creation will happen on a large scale because planning and building new factories is an incredibly complex and lengthy process. Businesses will be reluctant to do that unless they’re sure the investment is worth it over the long term. 

A fairly simple, midsize factory would cost a minimum of $25 million and take around two years to build, said Andreas Haag, founder of Streamliners, a consulting firm that helps manufacturers design and improve their factories. Complex projects can cost hundreds of millions of dollars, and new tariffs are adding to the expense.

With the White House indicating it is going to negotiate with trade partners and possibly reduce some of the tariffs—indeed, Trump paused most of the tariffs on Wednesday afternoon—there’s no certainty that new factories would pay back their investment over time."

"Manufacturers have been struggling with labor shortages for years. Among the reasons: Factory jobs developed a reputation as dirty, dull or dangerous; more young people go to college today than in the heyday of American manufacturing; production jobs require more sophisticated skills; and baby boomers are retiring faster than they can be replaced. 

A 2024 report by Deloitte and the Manufacturing Institute estimated that the U.S. may have 1.9 million unfilled manufacturing jobs by 2033.

Employers have relied on immigrant workers to fill gaps, but they expect fewer immigrants to come to the U.S. as Trump tightens border policy."

Related posts:

Americans Are Stockpiling Ahead of Trump’s Tariffs (2025)

Powell Warns of ‘Challenging Scenario’ for Fed as Trade War Rages (2025) 

How Much Do Tariffs Raise Prices? (2025)

Politicians talk about creating manufacturing jobs but do people really want them? (2025)

How some of Trump's policies might affect the economy (2024)

Tariffs are regressive: they fall more heavily on lower-income families who tend to spend more of their income on cheap imported goods (2024)

Americans Are Stockpiling to Get Ahead of Tariffs: Some consumers are snapping up computer parts, vacuum cleaners, coffee and olive oil before levies take effect (2024)

Life is full of tradeoffs: If we support American workers with trade restrictions it might mean more inflation (2023) 

Will removing Chinese tariffs have a dramatic impact on inflation? (2022)

Life Is Full Of Tradeoffs: If We Want To Do More To Fight Climate Change We May Have To Lower Tariffs On Solar Panels Which Might Put U.S. Firms Out Of Business  (2021)

Mark Twain, Free Trade and Tariffs (2019)

What happened in some earlier U.S. trade Wars? (2019)

The importance of imports of capital and intermediate goods to the U.S. economy (2019)

Historical trends in manufacturing (2018)

Abandoning free trade might threaten peace and stability across the globe (2017)

Interesting New Book On Trade And Tariffs By Marc-William Palen (2017)

Before You Criticize Free Trade, You Should Read Douglas Irwin's Book Free Trade Under Fire (2012)

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