The Seasonally Adjusted CPI Was Up 0.081% In May

Here are the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPI each of the last six months:

Dec  0.3647% 

Jan  0.4669%

Feb 0.2160%

Mar -0.0500%

April 0.2209%

May  0.081%

 

The last decline before March 2025 was June 2024 when it was down 0.0029%.

 

See Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for data on the seasonally adjusted CPI.

 

That site shows a graph but if you click on the Download button you will get the actual numbers in Microsoft Excel.

 

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL) was 320.321 in April and 320.580 in May. Since 320.580/320.321 = 1.00081, that means it was up 0.081%. If we had that every month for 12 months it would be up 0.975%.  

 

It was 313.140 in May 2024. Since 320.580/313.140 = 1.0238, that means it was up 2.38% over the last 12 months.  

The non-seasonally adjusted CPI was 321.465 in May and 314.069 in May 2024. That was up 2.36%. So pretty close to the seasonally adjusted CPI. This is still above the Fed's target of 2.0% (although they prefer to use the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index which was 2.1% higher in April 2025 than April 2024).

 

For more information, see U.S. inflation rises 0.1% in May from prior month, less than expected by Jeff Cox of CNBC. 

 

I think the headline should have said that the CPI was up 0.1%, not inflation. If inflation rose 0.1% it would mean that the inflation rate was 0.1% higher than the month before. So if the inflation rate had been .22% in April then to get the May inflation rate we would multiply .0022 times 1.001. Then the May inflation rate would be .0022022 or .22022%. And they must have rounded up from .081% to .1%. So things were not up quite as much as the headline says.

 

Excerpts:

Consumer prices rose less than expected in May as President Donald Trump’s tariffs had yet to show significant impact on inflation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.

The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of goods and services across the sprawling U.S. economy, increased 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.2% and 2.4%.          

Excluding food and energy, the core CPI came in respectively at 0.1% and 2.8%, compared with forecasts for 0.3% and 2.9%. Federal Reserve officials consider core a better measure of long-term trends, with several expressing concerns recently over the impact that tariffs would have on inflation.

The all-items annual rate marked a 0.1 percentage point step up from April while core was the same."  

The article also discusses what types of products are going up in price and what is going down. There is a graph of the monthly year-over-year percent change in prices and core prices going back almost 4 years.

 

Other related links:

 

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in U.S. City Average (CPILFESL) This is also from from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. It has the seasonally adjusted core CPI.

 

Consumer Price Index Data from 1913 to 2025

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index 

 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics makes seasonal adjustments. See Consumer Price Index Summary.

 

The table below has the annual inflation rate since 1914 in the columns labeled CPI %Ch. or CPI percentage change. It is from Consumer Price Index Data from 1913 to 2025 and is not seasonally adjusted. It is also the December to December change in the CPI. That site also looks at how the 12 month average for the CPI changed from one year to the next. 

 

Year	CPI %Ch.		Year	CPI %Ch.		Year	CPI %Ch.		Year	CPI %Ch.
1914	1.0		1944	2.3		1974	12.3		2004	3.3
1915	2.0		1945	2.2		1975	6.9		2005	3.4
1916	12.6		1946	18.1		1976	4.9		2006	2.5
1917	18.1		1947	8.8		1977	6.7		2007	4.1
1918	20.4		1948	3.0		1978	9.0		2008	0.1
1919	14.5		1949	-2.1		1979	13.3		2009	2.7
1920	2.6		1950	5.9		1980	12.5		2010	1.5
1921	-10.8		1951	6.0		1981	8.9		2011	3.0
1922	-2.3		1952	0.8		1982	3.8		2012	1.7
1923	2.4		1953	0.7		1983	3.8		2013	1.5
1924	0.0		1954	-0.7		1984	3.9		2014	0.8
1925	3.5		1955	0.4		1985	3.8		2015	0.7
1926	-1.1		1956	3.0		1986	1.1		2016	2.1
1927	-2.3		1957	2.9		1987	4.4		2017	2.1
1928	-1.2		1958	1.8		1988	4.4		2018	1.9
1929	0.6		1959	1.7		1989	4.6		2019	2.3
1930	-6.4		1960	1.4		1990	6.1		2020	1.4
1931	-9.3		1961	0.7		1991	3.1		2021	7.0
1932	-10.3		1962	1.3		1992	2.9		2022	6.5
1933	0.8		1963	1.6		1993	2.7		2023	3.4
1934	1.5		1964	1.0		1994	2.7		2024	2.9
1935	3.0		1965	1.9		1995	2.5
1936	1.4		1966	3.5		1996	3.3
1937	2.9		1967	3.0		1997	1.7
1938	-2.8		1968	4.7		1998	1.6
1939	0.0		1969	6.2		1999	2.7
1940	0.7		1970	5.6		2000	3.4
1941	9.9		1971	3.3		2001	1.6
1942	9.0		1972	3.4		2002	2.4
1943	3.0		1973	8.7		2003	1.9