The percentage of 25-54 year olds employed for the first 8 months of 2025 was lower than it was for all of 2024, something that usually happens at the time of or right after a recession (part 2)

Part 1 was posted yesterday 

The average of the % of 25-54 year olds employed for the first 8 months of 2025 is 80.575%. For all of 2024 it was 80.717%. Data came from  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

I had a table that showed all the cases of when this % was lower for the first 8 months of a year than it was for all of the previous year. Before this year there were 20 cases and 14 of them overlapped at least somewhat with a recession. Even the ones that did not overlap were fairly soon after a recession. Our last recession ended more than 5 years ago so what we have now is unique: a drop in this % with no associated recession.

But that was using calendar years to make the comparisons. For this post I looked at all 8 month periods, not just the ones that began in January. Those were compared to the previous 12 months even though they were not complete calendar years.

Since the beginning of the data from 1948 on and before this current year, there were 905 comparisons of an 8 month period and the preceding 12 month period. Of those, 260 were negative. That is, the % was lower in the 8 month period than the preceding 12 month period. 

Of those, only 52 did not overlap with a recession or did not come within 1 year of a recession. And even among those 52 only 12 were more than 2 years after a recession and I think none were more than 3 years later. And again, we had our last recession more than 5 years ago. So what we have right now is very unusual. This % has fallen and there is no recession nearby.

Also see Employment-Population Ratio - 25-54 Yrs. from The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. This has the data I used for Part 2.