Why Marriage Is Increasingly for the Affluent

The economic contract of marriage has shifted, and now young people are looking for financial stability before the wedding

By Rachel Wolfe of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"Financial security is no longer a goal reached after marriage, younger Americans say, but rather a prerequisite for it." 

"The idea of both parties waiting to build a career or wealth before tying the knot is called a capstone model of marriage. Economists and demographers say that thinking has replaced the old “cornerstone” approach, where people would wed in their early 20s and then work together to buy a home, build a nest egg and progress in their careers."

"The estimated median age for a first marriage as of last year was 30 for men and 29 for women, according to the most recent census data, up from 28 for men and 26 for women in 2008."

"The marriage rate, that is the rate of new marriages to the overall population, has been on a long downward trajectory, census data shows. Between 2008 and 2023, the first-marriage rate among 22- to 45-year-olds declined 9%, to 60 marriages per 1,000 never-married Americans"

"marriage rates have declined much less for 22- to 45-year-olds with a bachelor’s degree than they have for those with less than a college education"

"The share of married adults in the top third of earners also fell slightly, while dropping much more for the bottom two thirds of the income spectrum."

"Economists say the diverging economic trajectories of men and women are making the capstone model of marriage harder to pull off. 

While women’s relative economic position has improved, many men are floundering. “In the past, men didn’t have to clear such a high bar because they had the ultimate ticket of ‘Well, I’m the breadwinner,’ ” said Richard Reeves, president of the American Institute for Boys and Men, a nonpartisan think tank.

People tend to marry along socioeconomic lines in a practice known as “assortative mating.” Although women make up roughly 60% of college grads, outpacing men with degrees, that educational mismatch hasn’t stopped educated women from marrying."

"those who aren’t marrying other college grads are marrying the highest-earning, non-college-educated men. That leaves less-educated women with fewer options."

"While 59% of American 37-year-olds with parents in the top income quartile were married as of 2019, according to Goldman’s research, only 30% of those from the bottom quartile could say the same."   

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