Thursday, March 31, 2022

How Odysseus Started The Industrial Revolution

 Factory work may have been a commitment device to get everyone to work hard. Odysseus tying himself to the mast was also a commitment device. Dean Karlan, Yale economics professor explains how commitment devices work:


"This idea of forcing one’s own future behavior dates back in our culture at least to Odysseus, who had his crew tie him to the ship’s mast so he wouldn’t be tempted by the sirens; and Cortes, who burned his ships to show his army that there would be no going back.

Economists call this method of pushing your future self into some behavior a “commitment device.” [Related: a Freakonomics podcast on the topic is called "Save Me From Myself."] From my WSJ op-ed:
Most of us don’t have crews and soldiers at our disposal, but many people still find ways to influence their future selves. Some compulsive shoppers will freeze their credit cards in blocks of ice to make sure they can’t get at them too readily when tempted. Some who are particularly prone to the siren song of their pillows in the morning place their alarm clock far from their bed, on the other side of the room, forcing their future self out of bed to shut it off. When MIT graduate student Guri Nanda developed an alarm clock, Clocky, that rolls off a night stand and hides when it goes off, the market beat a path to her door."
 See What Can We Learn From Congress and African Farmers About Losing Weight?

Something like this came up recently in the New York Times, in reference to factory work and the Industrial Revolution. See Looking at Productivity as a State of Mind. From the NY Times, 9-27-2014. By SENDHIL MULLAINATHAN, a professor of economics at Harvard. Excerpts:
"Greg Clark, a professor of economics at the University of California, Davis, has gone so far as to argue that the Industrial Revolution was in part a self-control revolution. Many economists, beginning with Adam Smith, have argued that factories — an important innovation of the Industrial Revolution — blossomed because they allowed workers to specialize and be more productive.

Professor Clark argues that work rules truly differentiated the factory. People working at home could start and finish when they wanted, a very appealing sort of flexibility, but it had a major drawback, he said. People ended up doing less work that way.

Factories imposed discipline. They enforced strict work hours. There were rules for when you could go home and for when you had to show up at the beginning of your shift. If you arrived late you could be locked out for the day. For workers being paid piece rates, this certainly got them up and at work on time. You can even see something similar with the assembly line. Those operations dictate a certain pace of work. Like a running partner, an assembly line enforces a certain speed.

As Professor Clark provocatively puts it: “Workers effectively hired capitalists to make them work harder. They lacked the self-control to achieve higher earnings on their own.”

The data entry workers in our study, centuries later, might have agreed with that statement. In fact, 73 percent of them did agree to this statement: “It would be good if there were rules against being absent because it would help me come to work more often.”"
The workers, like Odyssues, tied themselves to the mast to resist the temptation of slacking. This made it possible for factories to generate the large output of the Industrial Revolution.

Friday, March 25, 2022

ESG Investing Can Do Good or Do Well, but Don’t Expect Both

The claim that investors will make more money investing in green bonds is patently absurd. This is the second in a series of Streetwise columns on sustainable investing.

By James Mackintosh of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"The biggest and boldest claim of ESG investors is that investing based on environmental, social and governance conditions will not just improve our world, but make you more money. I have problems with both parts of the claim. The burgeoning market for green bonds shows the difficulties clearly, and stocks with a sustainability label aren’t so different.

Green bonds, where governments or companies promise to spend at least some of the proceeds on something environmentally friendly, are having their moment. More were sold last year than ever, and this year global issuance is forecast by BNP Paribas to climb another 60% to $900 billion. The U.K.’s first green government issue, last summer, attracted the highest demand ever for a British bond, and the green tinge is rapidly spreading from Europe to the rest of the world.

The claim that investors will make more money investing in green bonds is patently absurd. Green bonds typically have a slightly lower yield than a standard bond from the same issuer. This locks in guaranteed underperformance for taking identical risks that the government or company will fail to pay the bonds back.

Worse, the rapidly expanding sales of sovereign green bonds of developed countries are doing nothing for the environment, and most corporate green bonds achieve nothing either."

"The underperformance of green bonds is easy to demonstrate, and shows up in the “greenium”—the higher price, and so lower yield, for a green bond. In the case of the U.K.’s green gilt, as British government bonds are known, this showed up as a yield about 0.02 percentage points lower than would be expected from a normal gilt with a similar maturity. In Germany, where the comparison is simplified by matching green and traditional bonds, the green bond has a yield 0.05 percentage points lower. Holding these green bonds until maturity guarantees worse performance than those who hold ordinary bonds.

Investors who want to stop global warming might be happy to stump up a little extra to achieve their aims. The U.K. government, like all green-bond issuers, promises to spend the money on green projects, which include renewable energy, clean transportation and flood-control measures. 

Investors shouldn’t bother: The British government, in common with all developed democracies, sets its spending priorities before deciding how to finance them. All these green projects would have happened anyway. In the jargon of green finance, there is no “additionality” from the bonds—and there shouldn’t be. In a democracy, it is voters, not global financiers, who decide government spending priorities."

"This trade-off between trying to do the right thing and making more money is obvious in bonds. But it is fiercely disputed by ESG investors in stocks, even though the same issues apply."

"A company doing everything right on ESG might still be wildly overpriced; an all-male, all-white coal-mining-to-tobacco conglomerate run by Dr. Evil could be so cheap as to be a great—if unpleasant—investment. Even if ESG issues matter as their proponents say, the price is a vital determinant of future returns even over long periods. Simply buying “good” companies isn’t a route to outperformance.

Danish clean-energy company Orsted shows the problem: From its extremely high valuation at the start of last year, stock in the poster-child for the zero-carbon transition has plunged 41%, while coal stocks have soared.

If ranking companies by ESG scores really could help identify companies that will produce higher or more stable earnings, those companies should have a higher price, as everyone wants higher and more stable earnings. But once the better profit outlook is priced in, there’s no further outperformance.

The case for doing well by doing good can at best only be temporary; in spite of the thousands of asset managers running trillions of dollars who have signed ESG pledges, advocates have to believe both that ESG helps earnings, and that it still isn’t priced in."

"trawling through the ESG reports isn’t work for do-gooders, it’s for capitalists. “Clean” stocks will sometimes be overpriced and “dirty” stocks sometimes cheap, even after including ESG information, and to profit you have to be willing to sell the clean stocks and buy the dirty ones—the exact opposite of what ESG investors do.

If ESG truly offers rewards to investors, it brings no virtue. If it is virtuous, expect a lower reward."

Related posts

The hidden costs of corporate social responsibility

Why the Sustainable Investment Craze Is Flawed

C.E.O.s Are Qualified to Make Profits, Not Lead Society

ESG Investing in the Pandemic Shows Power of Luck

ESG Investing Shines in Market Turmoil, With Help From Big Tech: The strength of socially responsible funds suggests they have staying power; ‘ESG is not a fad’

Funds that market themselves as sustainable investments aren’t necessarily focused on companies that fight climate change, develop wind turbines or promote diverse boards

ESG Funds Draw SEC Scrutiny (companies that pursue strategies to address environmental, social or governance challenges)

Is it a retailer’s job to keep shoppers from their vices? (or Adam Smith vs. CVS pharmacy)

Can You Find Virtue by Investing in Vice?

What if companies pledge to adhere to social and environmental accountability guidelines?

Conspicuous Consumption, Conspicuous Virtue, Thorstein Veblen (and Adam Smith, too!) 

Data show that socially responsible investments can outperform the S&P 500 index
 

Is altruism a result of selfishness?

Do you have to be selfish to make more money?

Does collective self-deception mask selfish behavior?

Why Doing Good Makes It Easier to Be Bad

Businesses intentionally display their social and environmental performance in addition to their financial performance to stakeholders

Should you invest according to religious guidelines?

Companies Adapt to Activism by Athletes 

For a humorous view of this issue see

A Snickers a Day Keeps the Doctor Away: Why does CVS want to make my migraine cures hard to find? by Joseph C. Sternberg of the WSJ

 

Thursday, March 10, 2022

Why the Sustainable Investment Craze Is Flawed

The first in a series of Streetwise columns about the failed promise of funds guided by environmental, social and governance principles, known as ESG 

By James Mackintosh of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"The financial industry has spotted an opportunity to make money by helping people feel good about themselves. Despite claims to the contrary, these investments don’t do much to make the world a better place.

ESG funds, as they are known, promise to invest in companies with better environmental, social and governance attributes, to save the planet, improve worker conditions or, in the case of the U.S. Vegan Climate ETF, prevent animals from being eaten

Money has poured into ESG funds as noisy lobby groups push pension funds, university endowments and some central banks to shift their investments. The United Nations-supported Principles for Responsible Investment says signatories have $121 trillion of assets under management; even assuming lots of double-counting, that is most of the world’s managed money."

"Someone has to take a loss somewhere if fossil fuels are going to be left in the ground rather than extracted and sold. ESG investors’ hope is that the losses will fall on other people. The problem is that less environmentally-minded investors buying those shares, oil wells or power plants are absolutely not going to shut them down unless they stop being profitable.

It might make sense for an investor or company to sell out of fossil fuels early if they think the retreat from coal and oil is inevitable—indeed, that was the pitch by the activist who took on Exxon—but that is simply to invest according to a political prediction, not a way to fight climate change."

ESG supporters can point to what look like successes: Their pressure has encouraged many companies to sell off dirty power plants, mines and, in the case of Anglo-Australian miner BHP, its oil business. It has even forced board changes at Exxon Mobil.

Sadly, selling off assets or shares by itself does nothing to save the planet, because someone else bought them. Just as much oil and coal is dug up and burned as before, under different ownership. And there are plenty of people out there to buy the assets, because never before in history has there been so much private capital operating without the public reporting requirements brought by stock markets.

Rich people who want to make the world greener could make a difference, by buying and closing dirty businesses even when they are profitable. So far, though, this hasn’t happened in any significant way. The pitch from Wall Street fund managers is the exact opposite—that by going green investors can change the world and make more money, not less."

"Some of the biggest sources of fossil fuels are immune to shareholder pressure anyway. Much of the world’s oil is pumped by government-controlled companies, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Exxon can be forced to change its approach, but the global supply of oil is still determined by OPEC, as President Biden’s appeal to the cartel to pump more to keep fuel prices down has demonstrated.

There are three big pro-ESG arguments, which sound reasonable, but have major flaws. 

First, if companies treat the environment, workers, suppliers and customers better, it will be better for business. This could work where companies have missed something to boost profits, such as add solar panels on a sunny roof or create a better employee retention program. Early ESG activists plucked the low-hanging fruit here, but management has become painfully aware of changing customer and employee expectations, so there is less opportunity ahead."

"profits can only be maintained by passing the higher costs through into higher prices, and—unless the firm has monopoly power—eventually customers who don’t care will go elsewhere. The alternative is to reduce profits, but ESG investors are almost universally against this.

The second ESG point is that by shunning stocks or bonds of dirty companies, and embracing those of clean companies, it will direct capital away from bad things and toward good ones. After all, a lower stock price or higher borrowing cost in the bond market should make it less attractive for dirty companies to expand, and vice versa for clean companies.

In practice, there has been a very weak link between the cost of capital and overall corporate investment for at least a couple of decades."

he high prices early last year for clean-energy stocks might have encouraged similar corporate investment. The flip side of course is that buying wildly overpriced shares isn’t a good way to make money, as losses of a third or more from this year’s peaks for clean-energy stocks shows. Shifting the cost of capital just might help save the planet, but after the short-term shift in valuations is over, it should lead to underperformance.

The third claim from some ESG investors is that they are just trying to make money, and that involves shunning firms that are taking unpriced risks with the environment, workers or customers. Since they call themselves “sustainable” or use “ESG integration,” funds doing this look very like the rest of the ESG industry. The selection principle of the most popular ESG indexes, for instance, those from MSCI, involves identifying only risks that are financially material.

I would say, sure. If you think the government is going to, say, raise fuel taxes, don’t buy manufacturers of gas-guzzlers. If you think the government will impose more restrictions on coal plants, then coal generation will be an even less attractive investment. 

Equally, if you think customers will be willing to pay more for brands that cut their carbon use, by all means bet on their shares. Just don’t fool yourself that you are making much difference to the world with your investment decision."

Related posts

The hidden costs of corporate social responsibility

C.E.O.s Are Qualified to Make Profits, Not Lead Society

ESG Investing in the Pandemic Shows Power of Luck

ESG Investing Shines in Market Turmoil, With Help From Big Tech: The strength of socially responsible funds suggests they have staying power; ‘ESG is not a fad’

Funds that market themselves as sustainable investments aren’t necessarily focused on companies that fight climate change, develop wind turbines or promote diverse boards

ESG Funds Draw SEC Scrutiny (companies that pursue strategies to address environmental, social or governance challenges)

Is it a retailer’s job to keep shoppers from their vices? (or Adam Smith vs. CVS pharmacy)

Can You Find Virtue by Investing in Vice?

What if companies pledge to adhere to social and environmental accountability guidelines?

Conspicuous Consumption, Conspicuous Virtue, Thorstein Veblen (and Adam Smith, too!) 

Data show that socially responsible investments can outperform the S&P 500 index
 

Is altruism a result of selfishness?

Do you have to be selfish to make more money?

Does collective self-deception mask selfish behavior?

Why Doing Good Makes It Easier to Be Bad

Businesses intentionally display their social and environmental performance in addition to their financial performance to stakeholders

Should you invest according to religious guidelines?

Companies Adapt to Activism by Athletes 

For a humorous view of this issue see

A Snickers a Day Keeps the Doctor Away: Why does CVS want to make my migraine cures hard to find? by Joseph C. Sternberg of the WSJ

Friday, March 04, 2022

The percentage of 25-54 year-olds employed rose in February

One weakness of the unemployment rate is that if people drop out of the labor force they cannot be counted as an unemployed person and the unemployment rate goes down. They are no longer actively seeking work and it might be because they are discouraged workers. The lower unemployment rate can be misleading in this case. People dropping out of the labor force might indicate a weak labor market.

We could look at the employment to population ratio instead, since that includes those not in the labor force. But that includes everyone over 16 and that means that senior citizens are in the group but many of them have retired. The more that retire, the lower this ratio would be and that might be misleading. It would not necessarily mean the labor market is weak.

But we have this ratio for people age 25-54 (which also eliminates many college age people who might not be looking for work).

The percentage of 25-54 year olds employed was 79.5% in Feb. It was 79.1% in Jan. It was 80.5% in Jan. 2020 and 69.6% in April 2020.  Click here to see the BLS data. The unemployment rate was 3.8% in Feb. Click here to go to that data. The % of those 16 and older employed went from 59.7% up to 59.9%.

Here is a good graph from the St. Louis Fed. It shows that there are 127,164,000 people in the 25-54 year old group. So since we are 1.0 percentage point below the 80.5% of Jan. 2020 (the high point since the previous recession), that is still 1,271,640 fewer jobs (Hat tip: Vance Ginn of the Texas Public Policy Foundation). 

Also, we are up 9.9 percentage points since April 2020 (79.5 - 69.6). That is 90.8% of what we lost from Jan. 2020 to April 2020 (10.9 percentage points or 80.5 - 69.6). Then 9.9/10.9 = 90.8%. So we have gotten about 90.8% of the jobs back. Good, but a significant amount of ground has still has to be made up.  

Here is the timeline graph of the percentage of 25-54 year olds employed since 2012. 

Now since 1948