Friday, May 15, 2026

Where Americans Are Drawing the Line on Price Increases

Shoppers are buying less where prices are rising fastest, showing that inflation isn’t being driven by demand but by companies passing on costs

By Rachel Wolfe of The WSJ

I have done several posts on how people have been dealing with the inflation of the last few years as well as how they have been affected. Links to those posts are listed after some excerpts from the article.  Many of the things consumers are doing involve more time and effort doing things they would not normally do. This is one of the costs of inflation, what we have to do to avoid it or mitigate it.

This article suggests that supply is shifting to the left when it mentions companies passing on costs. So if we have a decrease in supply, price will go up and quantity will go down (the article says consumers are buying less where prices are rising fastest, which is not a surprise). If both price and quantity were rising, then it would mean that demand was increasing (or at least increasing more than supply is decreasing).

Excerpts from the article: 

"Shoppers are spending less on goods like clothing, furniture and sports equipment, which have risen in price over the past year. At the same time, they are spending more on some services and experiences, like travel and healthcare."

"many of the goods for which prices have risen fastest are the same ones for which spending, adjusted for inflation, is falling most."

"Spending on clothing fell about 7% between December and the end of February, after adjusting for seasonal variations"

"Clothing prices were up 9% over the period."

"furniture buying was down 5% as prices were up 7%. And sporting-equipment purchases were down 6%, with prices up 16%."

"Consumers are pulling back where price increases on goods are most dramatic. Consumer spending in aggregate appears to be holding up, a sign that some say shows inflation isn’t having that much effect despite widespread complaining. Under the surface, inflation’s impact is clear."

"it isn’t strong demand pulling prices up but other factors largely around tariffs and supply-chain pressures. Companies . . . are seeing more resistance to price increases." [tariffs are like excise taxes that cause supply lines to shift upwards by the amount of the tax and this has the same effect as a leftward shift in supply-see my post Americans Are the Ones Paying for Tariffs, Study Finds  that illustrates this with a graph]

"Consumers aren’t cutting back everywhere that prices are rising. They are still spending on travel, financial services and healthcare services, for example, even though prices are up."

"families with some level of disposable income are making constant trade-offs and negotiations about where and how to spend."

"Chicago financial adviser Michael Biggus said many of his clients are cutting back on discretionary purchases, even those with healthy savings and incomes."

Related posts:

The 2025 Inflation Numbers Are Finally In. Here’s the Good and Bad News: Gasoline prices are down, but rising grocery costs continue to weigh on consumers (2026) 

The Middle Class Is Buckling Under Almost Five Years of Persistent Inflation: Workers growing tired of economy in which everything seems to get more expensive (2025) 

The Lengths Americans Are Willing to Go to Make Every Penny Count: From buying half a cow to watering down soap, people are experimenting with frugality—and it is affecting sales at consumer companies (2025) 

Are you hurting the economy if you bring your lunch to work? (2025)

More people are bringing their lunch to work because restaurant meals have been going up in price. Again, more tasks that people are performing to avoid inflation 

Inflation Has Cooled, but Americans Are Still Seething Over Prices: Many people—though not all—saw wage increases that kept pace with the pandemic’s rapid price hikes, but the psychological toll remains (2024)

Child Care, Rent, Insurance: Where Inflation Hits Hardest Now (2024)

Why do workers dislike inflation? (2024) 

"workers must take costly actions (“conflict”) to have nominal wages catch up with inflation" They have to bargain with or fight their employers to get a wage increase to match inflation.

Inflation Usually Hits Harder for Poor Families. For a Couple of Years, It Didn’t. New research on how inflation varies between the poor, middle class and rich paints a different picture of poverty and inequality (2024)

The Haves and Have-Nots at the Center of America’s Inflation Fight: There’s a growing gap between Americans who are battered by high inflation and interest rates and those who are actually benefiting (2024)

An Increase in Uninsured Drivers Is Pushing Up Costs for Everyone Else (2024) 

Inflation has caused consumers to choose what they need to cut back on (insurance)

Costco and Sam’s Club Aisles Are Full of Gen Z Shoppers (2024)

Consumers are buying in bulk to save money by getting a lower per unit price

Inflation is mentally taxing (2024)

Inflation is mentally taxing. Dealing with a straitened budget exacts a psychological toll as well as a financial one

Store Brands Are Filling Up More of Your Shopping Cart (2024) 

People are on the look out for cheaper alternatives due to inflation

Consumers Fed Up With Food Costs Are Ditching Big Brands (2024) 

After years of price increases, food companies say more consumers pull back; fast-food chains and snack makers plan new deals and flavors

Are Americans Worrying Too Much About Inflation? Two opposing views (2024)

The Era of One-Stop Grocery Shopping Is Over (2024)

One thing that I always talked about with inflation was that one of its costs was all the things we had to do to avoid it. Consumers are making 8% more trips to different retailers as inflation continues to upend household budgets. They are going to more stores to find lower prices. But it costs time to do that and probably more money on gas.

When workers were paid twice a day and given half-hour shopping breaks (Germany, 1923

By mid-1923 workers were being paid as often as three times a day. Their wives would meet them, take the money and rush to the shops to exchange it for goods. However, by this time, more and more often, shops were empty. Storekeepers could not obtain goods or could not do business fast enough to protect their cash receipts. Farmers refused to bring produce into the city in return for worthless paper. The requirements to calculate and recalculate commercial transactions in the billions and trillions made it practically impossible to do business in paper Marks.

Wednesday, May 13, 2026

Adam Smith and the Role of the Towns in Feudal Europe

By Mark Koyama.

Abstract 

"Adam Smith’s account of medieval towns in Book III of The Wealth of Nations remains one of the most influential analyses of how commerce transformed feudal Europe. This pa- per formalizes Smith’s argument as a game between kings, lords, and towns. The king-town alliance emphasized by Adam Smith emerges when towns are wealthy enough to offer fiscal and military support but lords remain a serious threat. However, when kings become exces- sively predatory, towns may ally with lords (as in the Magna Carta crisis); when towns are too weak to offer substantial support, kings ally with lords instead (as in Eastern Europe). A dynamic extension shows that the king-town equilibrium is self-undermining: commercial growth erodes lordly military power through Smith’s “diamond buckles” mechanism, even- tually enabling royal absolutism. In contrast, the king-lords equilibrium is self-reinforcing, suppressing urban development and preserving feudal institutions. The framework highlights how small differences in initial urban development could generate dramatically different long- run trajectories and illuminates both the brilliance and the limitations of Smith’s conjectural history."

Also see his Twitter thread

"The paper (https://markkoyama.github.io/papers/Public_Choice_Submission%205.pdf) revisits Smith's Book III on how towns drove Europe's movement out of feudalism. Barry Weingast and others have highlighted the implicit game theory: medieval towns allied with kings to break the power of feudal lords.

Smith saw medieval Europe as a three-way struggle: kings, lords, and towns. The king-town alliance emerges when towns are rich enough to offer fiscal and military support, but lords remain a serious threat. I formalize this in a simple game.

The main insight: this is an equilibrium -- but just one of several. Smith's story fits France under Philip Augustus. But history also produced two other coalitions.

Lords and towns allied against tyrannical kings -- the Magna Carta crisis of 1215. And kings allied with lords against towns -- as when Frederick II sacrificed German urban liberties to buy princely support for his Italian campaigns.

Making the model dynamic: the king-town alliance is self-undermining. As commerce grows, lords spend their military capacity on luxuries -- Smith's "diamond buckles" argument. Lords become irrelevant and the game collapses into royal absolutism.

In contrast, the king-lords equilibrium is self-reinforcing. Suppressing commerce keeps towns weak, which keeps the coalition attractive. A poverty trap: towns that start weak stay weak, lords that start strong stay strong. This fits the "second serfdom."

Small differences in initial conditions generate dramatically different long-run trajectories. Western Europe's towns were just developed enough by the 11th-12th centuries. The Commercial Revolution pushed them across the threshold. Eastern Europe didn't cross it.

The framework highlights how "critical junctures" -- the Commercial Revolution, the Black Death, succession crises -- can tip polities from one equilibrium to another. Then self-reinforcing dynamics take over.

Smith's conjectural history is remarkably insightful -- but incomplete. He identified the king-town equilibrium and its self-undermining dynamics. This was one path among several, explaining why Europe's political trajectories diverged so dramatically.

This paper shows how Smith can be still be an input into an active research agenda in economic history (as opposed to simply rehashing old debates)."

Other history related posts:

When Beer is Safer than Water: Beer Availability and Mortality from Waterborne Illnesses in 18th Century England 

Extractive Taxation and the French Revolution: Between 1750 and 1789, areas in France with heavier tax burdens experienced significantly more riots 

MONKS, GENTS AND INDUSTRIALISTS: THE LONG-RUN IMPACT OF THE DISSOLUTION OF THE ENGLISH MONASTERIES 

Did Tea Drinking Cut Mortality Rates in England?

Pre-market societies could sometimes have alot of violence

Did the industrial revolution cause children to take on adult roles later and later? 

Primitive communism: Marx’s idea that societies were naturally egalitarian and communal before farming is widely influential and quite wrong (plus Ruth Benedict on property rights)  

When workers were paid twice a day and given half-hour shopping breaks (Germany, 1923) 

Economics influenced the spread of viral rumors during the French Revolution 

Tuesday, May 12, 2026

The Seasonally Adjusted CPI Was up 0.64% in April

Here are the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPI for the six months ending in March: 

Sept. 0.2951% (There was no report for October due to the government shutdown)
Nov. 0.2523% (change from Sept)
Dec. 0.2978%
Jan. 0.1708%
Feb. 0.2670
March 0.865% 
 
The last decline was June 2024 when it was -0.042%.

See Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for data on the seasonally adjusted CPI.

That site shows a graph but if you click on the Download button you will get the actual numbers in Microsoft Excel.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL) was 332.407 in April and 330.293 in March. Since 332.407/330.293 = 1.0064, that means it was up 0.64%. If we had that every month for 12 months it would be up 7.96%.

It was 320.302 in April 2025. Since 332.407/320.302 = 1.0378, that means it was up 3.78% over the last 12 months.

The non-seasonally adjusted CPI was 333.020 in April and 320.795 in April 2025. That was up 3.81%. So pretty close to the seasonally adjusted CPI. This is still above the Fed's target of 2.0% (although they prefer to use the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index which was 3.5% higher in March 2026 than March 2025).

For more information see Consumer prices rose 3.8% annually in April, the highest since May 2023 by Jeff Cox of CNBC. Excerpt:

"Prices that consumers pay for a wide range of goods and services increased at a faster-than-expected pace in April, as another burst in energy prices raised further concerns about inflation’s impact on the U.S. economy.

The consumer price index rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the month, putting the one-year pace at 3.8%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly rate was as forecast, but the annual rate was 0.1 percentage point above the Dow Jones consensus.

Excluding food and energy, the core CPI increased 0.4% and 2.8%, respectively, keeping inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal as the monthly rate was the highest since January 2025. Fed officials consider core a better indicator of longer-term inflation trends.

The annual headline inflation rate was the highest since May 2023 and was up half a percentage point from March. Core inflation rose 0.2 percentage point annually."

The article also discusses what types of products are going up in price and what is going down. There is a graph of the monthly year-over-year percent change in prices and core prices going back almost 4 years.   

Related material: 

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in U.S. City Average (CPILFESL) This is also from from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. It has the seasonally adjusted core CPI.
 
 
 
The Bureau of Labor Statistics makes seasonal adjustments. See Consumer Price Index Summary.
 
The table below has the annual inflation rate since 1914 in the columns labeled CPI %Ch. or CPI percentage change. It is from Consumer Price Index Data from 1913 to 2026 and is not seasonally adjusted. It is also the December to December change in the CPI. That site also looks at how the 12 month average for the CPI changed from one year to the next.
 

Year

CPI %Ch.

 

Year

CPI %Ch.

 

Year

CPI %Ch.

 

Year

CPI %Ch.

1914

1

 

1944

2.3

 

1974

12.3

 

2004

3.3

1915

2

 

1945

2.2

 

1975

6.9

 

2005

3.4

1916

12.6

 

1946

18.1

 

1976

4.9

 

2006

2.5

1917

18.1

 

1947

8.8

 

1977

6.7

 

2007

4.1

1918

20.4

 

1948

3

 

1978

9

 

2008

0.1

1919

14.5

 

1949

-2.1

 

1979

13.3

 

2009

2.7

1920

2.6

 

1950

5.9

 

1980

12.5

 

2010

1.5

1921

-10.8

 

1951

6

 

1981

8.9

 

2011

3

1922

-2.3

 

1952

0.8

 

1982

3.8

 

2012

1.7

1923

2.4

 

1953

0.7

 

1983

3.8

 

2013

1.5

1924

0

 

1954

-0.7

 

1984

3.9

 

2014

0.8

1925

3.5

 

1955

0.4

 

1985

3.8

 

2015

0.7

1926

-1.1

 

1956

3

 

1986

1.1

 

2016

2.1

1927

-2.3

 

1957

2.9

 

1987

4.4

 

2017

2.1

1928

-1.2

 

1958

1.8

 

1988

4.4

 

2018

1.9

1929

0.6

 

1959

1.7

 

1989

4.6

 

2019

2.3

1930

-6.4

 

1960

1.4

 

1990

6.1

 

2020

1.4

1931

-9.3

 

1961

0.7

 

1991

3.1

 

2021

7

1932

-10.3

 

1962

1.3

 

1992

2.9

 

2022

6.5

1933

0.8

 

1963

1.6

 

1993

2.7

 

2023

3.4

1934

1.5

 

1964

1

 

1994

2.7

 

2024

2.9

1935

3

 

1965

1.9

 

1995

2.5

 

         2025    

          2.7

1936

1.4

 

1966

3.5

 

1996

3.3

 

 

 

1937

2.9

 

1967

3

 

1997

1.7

 

 

 

1938

-2.8

 

1968

4.7

 

1998

1.6

 

 

 

1939

0

 

1969

6.2

 

1999

2.7

 

 

 

1940

0.7

 

1970

5.6

 

2000

3.4

 

 

 

1941

9.9

 

1971

3.3

 

2001

1.6

 

 

 

1942

9

 

1972

3.4

 

2002

2.4

 

 

 

1943

3

 

1973

8.7

 

2003

1.9

 

 

 

 
Here is a timeline graph of this data: