Friday, September 23, 2011

Will There Be A Pumpkin Shortage This Year?

See The Great Pumpkin Shortage: Stormy Summer Limits Supply In Northeast By MEGAN GIBSON of Here is an excerpt:
"As much as we hate to admit we need pumpkins - NewsFeed answers to no vegetable - this time of year we really do. Unfortunately for those of you in the Northeast, pumpkins might not be so readily available for your Halloweening needs.

Thanks to Tropical Storm Irene and an especially stormy summer, there are severe reported shortages in pumpkin crops across the region as bad weather conditions have led to higher numbers of rotten vegetables. Which means that pumpkin seekers could be paying double for their Jack-o'-lantern canvases in some places and, in others, they could be out of luck entirely.

What's a Halloween lover to do? Now just because you didn't see this shortage coming, doesn't mean there's no hope for you. Now that you know, however, your first course of action should be to move quickly. David Dumaresq of Farmer Dave's told CBS that you should "[b]uy your pumpkins soon for the best availability because there's not going to be too many around this year.""
Of course, if everyone tries to "move quickly," that could make the price rise sooner. This relates to one of the shift factors of demand, expectation of future price. If buyers expect higher prices in the near future, demand today increases which will cause the price to rise.

Then sellers will reduce supply in anticipation of the higher price, further speeding up the price increase. My guess is that sellers try to project consumer behavior on this and will raise the price based on this.

But if the price actually doubles, then that would eliminate the shortage. We have the supply line moving to the left, raising the price and lowering the quantity bought and sold. Yes, fewer people will get pumpkins this time of year, but there is no shortage.

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