See
New Priorities for a New Fed Regime: Incoming leadership should make maintaining financial stability one of the central bank’s goals by Martin Feldstein. Excerpt:
"The price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index rose from an average
of 18.5 in the three years before the downturn of 2007 to 25.2 now, an
increase of 37%. The current P/E ratio is 63% higher than its historic
average and higher than all but three years in the 20th century.
If the P/E ratio declines to its historic average, the implied fall
would reduce the value of household equities by $9.5 trillion. If every
dollar of decline in wealth reduces spending by the historic average of 4
cents, the level of household spending would fall by $475 billion, or
more than 2% of gross domestic product. The lower equity prices and the
decline in household spending would also cause business investment to
fall, further reducing economic activity.
Bond prices are also
out of line with historic experience. With inflation at around 2%, the
long-term 10-year Treasury yield should be at about 4.5%. Instead it is
only about 2.5%. If the yield on long-term bonds returns to normal
historic levels, there will be substantial losses of value for current
bondholders.
Commercial real estate is overpriced because
investors compare the yield on real estate with the interest rate on
long-term bonds. Since real estate is often held in highly leveraged
investments, falling prices could lead to an even greater decline in the
net value of real-estate assets.
The combination of overpriced
real estate and equities has left the financial sector fragile and has
put the entire economy at risk. The Fed has so far chosen not to address
this fragility."
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