Is the gig economy growing or not?

See Was the Gig Economy Overblown? U.S. labor market largely unchanged since 2005, new data show by Eric Morath of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"the fraction of workers employed as independent contractors was 6.9% in May 2017, down from 7.4% in February 2005, the last time the survey was taken. The broadest measure of the share of workers who are contingent—meaning they don’t expect their jobs to last more than an additional year—was 3.8% last year, down from 4.1% in 2005."

"Labor data showed a large increase in such contractors working in transportation—think Lyft drivers—and professional and business services, which would capture many on platforms like Thumbtack. Use of independent contractors fell sharply in construction, retail and finance."

"It only asked about a worker’s “main job,” meaning someone moonlighting on TaskRabbit wouldn’t show up. And workers needed to do the work in the past week to count.

A separate study by the JPMorgan Chase Institute found that in 2015, only 33% of those participating in online platforms, such as Uber and Airbnb, earned the majority of their income through such apps and sites. The institute also found it was common for workers to cycle on and off platforms, often working more gigs when other sources of income slowed."

"temps, vendors and contractors, but most of those workers are employees of a contracting firm—not going it alone, and thus not independent."

"independent contract workers are happy, with 79% saying they preferred their current arraignment to traditional work. That could be because independent contractors, on average, earn more than traditional workers.

However, 55% of workers who expected their employment to end in less than a year said they would prefer traditional jobs."

But also see Don’t Be So Sure the Gig Is Up Contract work has fallen as a share of employment, a BLS study finds: But there are reasons to doubt it by Liya Palagashvili, an economics professor at State University of New York-Purchase . Excerpts: 

"But there are reasons to doubt the BLS survey, which was last conducted in 2005. The new survey found that as a percentage of all workers, those in alternative employment arrangements—including contract, freelance and on-call work—was lower in 2017 (10.1%) than in 2005 (10.7%).

Does this mean that the gig economy is shrinking? Not necessarily—for three reasons. First, the BLS survey measures only workers whose primary job is a contractor or freelancer. Thus, for example, 69% of Uber drivers are not considered in the BLS study because they also have payroll jobs. Studies by Upwork, McKinsey Global Institute and MBO Partners all account for secondary work and report a significantly higher proportion of freelancers and contractors.

Second, the BLS statistic is a ratio of workers in alternative employment arrangements to the total number of people employed. That can be misleading. As the workforce grows, the denominator increases so that the ratio goes down. In fact, total employment grew more than 10% between 2005-17. Alternative employment, as measured by the BLS, grew only slightly less quickly.

Third, the BLS data may have a sampling bias, because the survey is conducted as an in-person or live telephone interview. Unadjusted differences in traits of contractors and gig workers, such as working longer hours, affects whether they are likely to be absent or missed during the survey, and can lead to undercoverage of that type of worker.

A notable study by economists Lawrence Katz and Alan Krueger used the same questions as the BLS survey, but worked with a different sample population (the RAND American Life Panel) and used an internet survey. It found that alternative employment arrangements as a worker’s primary form of employment grew more than 50% between 2005 to 2015, when they collected their data."