Wednesday, September 28, 2022

If there are jobless recoveries can there also be jobful recessions? (Okun’s Law & Creative Destruction)

See Weak Growth, Tight Job Markets Are a Global Phenomenon: Economists cite aging populations and relatively low immigration as factors that became more pronounced during the pandemic by Tom Fairless and Megumi Fujikawa of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"Talk of a “jobful recession” has centered on the U.S., where payrolls grew by more than half a million in July and the unemployment rate declined to its prepandemic low of 3.5% even as economic output contracted in the three months through June."

"Unemployment and growth usually show a predictable relationship known as Okun’s Law, named for the Yale University economist Arthur Melvin Okun, who first proposed it in 1962. In the U.S., Okun’s law predicts that a 1% decline in output below its potential causes an increase in unemployment of half a percentage point.

However, that relationship can shift depending on factors such as workers‘ output per hour and labor-force growth, said Laurence Ball, an economics professor at Johns Hopkins University. If there are fewer workers and job seekers, the labor market can remain tight even if growth is weak.

Since February 2020, the U.S. labor force has shrunk by about half a million."

"While sustained low unemployment is generally a boon, Japan’s experience also shows the downsides: It means that the economy isn’t able to quickly direct workers to growth areas, which can limit “creative destruction”—the elimination of obsolete industries so that new industries can grow."

See Creative Destruction by Richard Alm and W. Michael Cox. Excerpt:

"Joseph Schumpeter
(1883–1950) coined the seemingly paradoxical term “creative destruction,” and generations of economists have adopted it as a shorthand description of the free market’s messy way of delivering progress. In Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy (1942), the Austrian economist wrote:

The opening up of new markets, foreign or domestic, and the organizational development from the craft shop to such concerns as U.S. Steel illustrate the same process of industrial mutation—if I may use that biological term—that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one. This process of Creative Destruction is the essential fact about capitalism. (p. 83)

Although Schumpeter devoted a mere six-page chapter to “The Process of Creative Destruction,” in which he described capitalism as “the perennial gale of creative destruction,” it has become the centerpiece for modern thinking on how economies evolve."

But also see this link which suggests that the idea goes back even before Schumpeter to other scholars: Creative Destruction in Economics: Nietzsche, Sombart, Schumpeter by Hugo Reinert and Erik S. Reinert.

"Abstract

This paper argues that the idea of ‘creative destruction’ enters the social sciences by way of Friedrich Nietzsche. The term itself is first used by German economist Werner Sombart, who openly acknowledges the influence of Nietzsche on his own economic theory. The roots of creative destruction are traced back to Indian philosophy, from where the idea entered the German literary and philosophical tradition. Understanding the origins and evolution of this key concept in evolutionary economics helps clarifying the contrasts between today’s standard mainstream economics and the Schumpeterian and evolutionary alternative."

Related posts: 

Okun's Law (2016) 

Economic Growth Is Set to Surge. Hiring Might Not Keep Up. (2021)  

Joseph Schumpeter And Me (2018) 

Jeff Bezos vs. Joseph Schumpeter (2021) 

Joseph Campbell Meets Joseph Schumpeter (The Entrepreneur As Hero) (2012)

How can an economy that is growing so slowly produce such big declines in unemployment? (2012)

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