The Seasonally Adjusted CPI Was up 0.12% in April & 4.1% over the last 12 months (and core inflation is still high)

See Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for data on the seasonally adjusted CPI.

That site shows a graph but if you click on the Download button you will get the actual numbers in Microsoft Excel.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL) was 303.294 in May and 302.918 in April. Since 303.294/302.918 = 1.0012, that means it was up 0.12% in May. If we had that every month for 12 months it would be up just 1.5%.

It was 291.268 in May 2022. Since 303.294/291.268 = 1.041, that means it was up 4.1% over the last 12 months.

The non-seasonally adjusted CPI was 304.127 in May and 292.296 in May 2022. That was up 4.0% since 304.127/292.296 = 1.04. So pretty close to the seasonally adjusted CPI. This is still above the Fed's target of 2.0% (although they prefer to use the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index).

The table below shows the percentage increase in seasonally adjusted CPI over the previous 12 months. For example, it was just 1.39% higher in January 2021 than it was in January 2020. But in June 2022 it was 8.93% higher than it was in June 2021. There is some good news since this 12 month rate has been falling.

Jan	2021	1.39%		Jan	2022	7.60%
Feb	2021	1.69%		Feb	2022	7.95%
Mar	2021	2.63%		Mar	2022	8.52%
April	2021	4.13%		April	2022	8.23%
May	2021	4.92%		May	2022	8.50%
June	2021	5.28%		June	2022	8.93%
July	2021	5.22%		July	2022	8.41%
Aug	2021	5.19%		Aug	2022	8.23%
Sept	2021	5.38%		Sept	2022	8.21%
Oct	2021	6.24%		Oct	2022	7.76%
Nov	2021	6.86%		Nov	2022	7.14%
Dec	2021	7.19%		Dec	2022	6.44%
				Jan	2023	6.35%
				Feb	2023	5.99%
				Mar	2023	4.99%
				April	2023	4.96%
				May	2023	4.13%

For more information, see Inflation dropped to 4% in May—but the ‘biggest risk’ is that core prices will remain sticky by Mike Winters of CNBC. Excerpts:

"Inflation has slowed for the 11th straight month, with the year-over-year rate dropping from 4.9% to 4%, according to Labor Bureau data published Tuesday. 

This largely reflects flat food prices, declining costs for some consumer goods, such as appliances, and a 11.7% year-over-year reduction in energy prices, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI). The CPI tracks prices for a variety of goods and services that Americans typically buy, and is watched closely by the Federal Reserve.

While the rate of inflation is declining, it’s not yet clear whether it will drop to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% anytime soon. 

That’s because core inflation — which excludes volatile food and gas prices — remains high at a year-over-year rate of 5.3%. In May, core inflation rose by 0.4%, following steady monthly increases averaging 0.4% so far in 2023.

Inflation might get ‘sticky’

Core inflation is a very broad measure of most goods and services in the CPI. It’s also considered to be a barometer of “sticky” inflation, since core prices change more slowly than other measures, like gas prices. 

As such, it tends to be a better underlying gauge of where inflation is headed. And right now, it looks like overall inflation isn’t going anywhere.

“The journey to 2% inflation has been stuck in a holding pattern,” says Greg McBride, chief analyst at Bankrate, citing core prices that have risen steadily for several months.

This “sticky” core inflation is the result of “an imbalance between demand and supply,” with too many dollars chasing too few goods, says McBride."

Other related links:

Consumer Price Index Data from 1913 to 2023

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index

Click here to see the BLS data on The Percentage Of 25-54 Year-Olds Employed 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics makes seasonal adjustments. See Consumer Price Index Summary.