The Seasonally Adjusted CPI Was up 0.20% in June & 3.0% over the last 12 months

See Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for data on the seasonally adjusted CPI.

That site shows a graph but if you click on the Download button you will get the actual numbers in Microsoft Excel.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL) was 303.294 in May and 303.841 in June. Since 303.841/303.294 = 1.0018 (which, I guess, rounds off to 1.002), that means it was up 0.20% in June. If we had that every month for 12 months it would be up just 2.2%.

It was 294.728 in June 2022. Since 303.841/294.728 = 1.03, that means it was up 3.0% over the last 12 months.

The non-seasonally adjusted CPI was 305.109 in June and 296.311 in June 2022. That was up 3.0% also since 305.109/296.311 = 1.02969 (which rounds off to 1.03). So pretty close to the seasonally adjusted CPI. This is still above the Fed's target of 2.0% (although they prefer to use the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index).

The percentage of 25-54 year-olds employed rose from 79.8% in June 2022 to 80.9% in June 2023. So it is good to see the employment picture improving at the same time the inflation news is getting better.  

The table below shows the percentage increase in seasonally adjusted CPI over the previous 12 months. For example, it was just 1.39% higher in January 2021 than it was in January 2020. But in June 2022 it was 8.93% higher than it was in June 2021. There is some good news since this 12 month rate has been falling.

Jan	2021	1.39%		Jan	2022	7.60%
Feb	2021	1.69%		Feb	2022	7.95%
Mar	2021	2.63%		Mar	2022	8.52%
April	2021	4.13%		April	2022	8.23%
May	2021	4.92%		May	2022	8.50%
June	2021	5.28%		June	2022	8.93%
July	2021	5.22%		July	2022	8.41%
Aug	2021	5.19%		Aug	2022	8.23%
Sept	2021	5.38%		Sept	2022	8.21%
Oct	2021	6.24%		Oct	2022	7.76%
Nov	2021	6.86%		Nov	2022	7.14%
Dec	2021	7.19%		Dec	2022	6.44%
				Jan	2023	6.35%
				Feb	2023	5.99%
				Mar	2023	4.99%
				April	2023	4.96%
				May	2023	4.13%

For more information, see Inflation slows to 3%, but returning to the Fed’s 2% target is ‘still a ways away,’ says economist by Mike Winters of CNBC. Excerpts: 

"Inflation in June grew by its slowest pace in more than two years, an encouraging sign that the Fed is on track to meet its benchmark target rate of 2%, new Labor Bureau data reveals.

The year-over-year inflation rate dropped from 4% in May to 3% in June, largely due to falling energy and transportation prices, according to the latest consumer price index report.

Perhaps most importantly, core inflation — a broad measure which excludes volatile food and energy prices — only grew by 0.2% month-over-month in June, after steadily rising by 0.4% or more for the past six months.

Core inflation is closely watched by the Fed as it’s considered to be a more accurate measure of where inflation is headed."

"The drop brings year-over-year core inflation down from a rate of 5.6% in January to 4.8% in June. 

However, considering that core inflation accounts for nearly 80% of all items in the CPI, that rate will need to drop much faster for the Fed to reach its target inflation rate of 2%. With core inflation’s current rate of deceleration, Wells Fargo doesn’t anticipate that inflation will go down to 2% until at least after 2024."

Other related links:

Consumer Price Index Data from 1913 to 2023

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index

Click here to see the BLS data on The Percentage Of 25-54 Year-Olds Employed 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics makes seasonal adjustments. See Consumer Price Index Summary.