One weakness of the unemployment rate is that if people drop out of the
labor force they cannot be counted as an unemployed person and the
unemployment rate goes down. They are no longer actively seeking work
and it might be because they are discouraged workers. The lower
unemployment rate can be misleading in this case. People dropping out of
the labor force might indicate a weak labor market.
We could look at the employment to population ratio instead, since that
includes those not in the labor force. But that includes
everyone over 16 and that means that senior citizens are in the group
but many of them have retired. The more that retire, the lower this
ratio would be and that might be misleading. It would not necessarily
mean the labor market is weak.
But we have this ratio for people age 25-54 (which also eliminates many college age people who might not be looking for work).
The percentage of 25-54 year olds employed was 80.9% in August, unchanged from 80.9% in June & July. It was 80.6% in Jan. 2020 just before Covid. The 80.9% in June was the highest since the 80.9% in April, 2001 and higher than it was in any month before May 1997. It rose 5 straight months before falling in May.
It was 80.6% in Jan. 2020 and 69.6% in April 2020. Click here to see the BLS data.
The unemployment rate was 3.5% in July but rose to 3.8% in August. But this is partly because the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.8%.
The unemployment rate was 3.6% for all of 2022. Click here to go to that data
2 comments:
What changed from the 1940-1950s and 1990? That is the standout question in the charts.
Thanks for reading and commenting.
In the long run from the 1940s, more women entered the labor force. Right after 1990 there was a recession and for time some big companies announce large layoffs. That is my recollection
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