How much will your Thanksgiving dinner cost? Less than last year’s

By Seth Bodine Of The Fort Worth Report. Excerpts:

"The cost of your Thanksgiving dinner will be slightly less than last year, according to a new survey from the American Farm Bureau Federation.

The average cost of the traditional dinner for 10 people will be $61.17, down 4.5% compared to last year.

The decrease in the total cost is mostly attributed to a decline in price of the dinner’s mainstay: turkey. The price for a 16-pound turkey is $27.35, which is down 5.6% from last year. Veronica Nigh, senior economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, said the outbreak of avian influenza in 2022 devastated the turkey population, but now the number of impacted turkeys is down.

The cost of the meal is still 25% higher than it was in 2019, Nigh said.

“But directionally, things are looking up,” she said.

The Farm Bureau conducts the survey every year, working with a handful of volunteer shoppers who survey grocery stores before turkey prices are marked down before Thanksgiving.

The prices they found:

• 16-pound turkey: $27.35 or $1.71 per pound (down 5.6%)
• 14-ounces of cubed stuffing mix: $3.77 (down 2.8%) 
• Two frozen pie crusts: $3.50 (down 4.9%)
• Half pint of whipping cream: $1.73 (down 22.8%)
• One pound of frozen peas: $1.88 (down 1.1%)
• One dozen dinner rolls: $3.84 (up 2.9%)
• Misc. ingredients to prepare the meal: $3.95 (down 4.4%)
• 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $4.44 (up 3.7%)
• One gallon of whole milk: $3.74 (down 2.6%)
• Three pounds of sweet potatoes: $3.97 (up .3%)
• One-pound veggie tray (carrots and celery): $.90 (up 2.3%)
• 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $2.10 (down 18.3%)"

Here is a graph of the change in cost over time from economist Betty Resnick. 

It looks like the cost has not changed that much adjusted for inflation over the last 20 years.

Here is one that goes from 1986-2019. It looks like the price fell from about $25 in 1986 to about $20 in 2019 (in 2019 $s).