One weakness of the unemployment rate is that if people drop out of the
labor force they cannot be counted as an unemployed person and the
unemployment rate goes down. They are no longer actively seeking work
and it might be because they are discouraged workers. The lower
unemployment rate can be misleading in this case. People dropping out of
the labor force might indicate a weak labor market.
We could look at the employment to population ratio instead, since that
includes those not in the labor force. But that includes
everyone over 16 and that means that senior citizens are in the group
but many of them have retired. The more that retire, the lower this
ratio would be and that might be misleading. It would not necessarily
mean the labor market is weak.
But we have this ratio for people age 25-54 (which also eliminates many college age people who might not be looking for work).
The % of 25-4 year olds employed was 80.4% in Dec, after being 80.7% in Nov. It was 80.6% in Jan. 2020 just before Covid. The 80.9% in June was the highest since the 80.9% in April, 2001. I hope the fact that it fell 0.5 percentage points in five months is not a bad sign for the economy.
It was 80.6% in Jan. 2020 and 69.6% in April 2020. Click here to see the BLS data.
It was 79.875% for all of 2022 & 80.667% for all of 2023.
The unemployment rate was 3.7% in both Nov. & Dec. The unemployment rate was 3.6% for all of 2022 as well as 2023. Click here to go to that data
The labor force participation fell from 62.8% to 62.5%. The labor force participation rate was 62.2% for all of 2022 and was 62.6%. in 2023.
60.145% of the adult population was employed in Dec. So we had a slight increase from Nov. to Dec.
60.3% of the adult population was employed in 2023. So we had a slight increase.
Here is the timeline graph of the percentage of 25-54 year olds employed since 2013.
Now since 1948
Now hours worked. This comes from the St. Louis FED. See Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private. It was 34.4 in Nov. & 34.3 in Dec.
1 comment:
Using 25 to 54 year olds also eliminates us geezer boomers who are willingly retiring at the rate of about 5000 per DAY!
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