Thursday, October 10, 2024

The Seasonally Adjusted CPI Was up 0.180% in September

That was after it was up 0.187% in August.

See Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for data on the seasonally adjusted CPI.

That site shows a graph but if you click on the Download button you will get the actual numbers in Microsoft Excel.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL) was 314.121 in August and 314.686 in Sept. Since 314.686/314.121 = 1.00180, that means it was up 0.180%. If we had that every month for 12 months it would be up 2.18%.

It was 307.288 in Sept. 2023. Since 314.686/307.288 = 1.024, that means it was up 2.40% over the last 12 months.

In the last 6 months it is up just 0.787%. If we had that for 12 months it would be up 1.579%

The non-seasonally adjusted CPI was 315.301 in Sept. and 307.789 in Sept. 2023. That was up 2.44%. So pretty close to the seasonally adjusted CPI. This is still above the Fed's target of 2.0% (although they prefer to use the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index which was 2.2% higher in Aug. 2024 than Aug. 2023). 

For more information, see Inflation rate hit 2.4% in September, topping expectations; jobless claims highest since August 2023 by Jeff Cox of CNBC. Excerpts:

"The pace of price increases over the past year was higher than forecast in September while jobless claims posted an unexpected jump following Hurricane Helene and the Boeing strike, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

The consumer price index, a broad gauge measuring the costs of goods and services across the U.S. economy, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. Both readings were 0.1 percentage point above the Dow Jones consensus.

The annual inflation rate was 0.1 percentage point lower than August and is the lowest since February 2021.

Excluding food and energy, core prices increased 0.3% on the month, putting the annual rate at 3.3%. Both core readings also were 0.1 percentage point above forecast."

The article also discusses what is going up and what is going on. There is a graph of the monthly year-over-year percent change in prices and core prices going back almost 3 years.

Other related links:

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in U.S. City Average (CPILFESL) This is also from from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. It has the seasonally adjusted core CPI.

Consumer Price Index Data from 1913 to 2023

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics makes seasonal adjustments. See Consumer Price Index Summary.

No comments: