Saturday, November 30, 2024

Looks Like Some Pretty Good Capitalists Run The Congress

This is originally post from 2009.

Go to Policy, portfolios and the investor lawmaker: As stock ownership rises in Congress, experts warn of potential ethics concerns from the Washington Post this past week.

Most members of the House of Representatives own stock. The article says "The investments increasingly put lawmakers in the position of voting or advocating on matters that could affect their personal wealth, whether the lawmakers realize it or not."

Politicians who rarely agree on anything might be found to be voting for the same bill if it matters to their pocket book. They are supposed to report what they own but the drag their feet and the records are not very well computerized, so they are harder to analyze. And they are good at this investing stuff. From 1985-2001, the legislators beat the market by .55 basis points a month. In a year that means 6.6 percentage points above the market.

In that time, the market (DJIA) gained just a bit under 1% a month (from 12-31-85 to 12-31-2001). It went from 1,546 to 10,021. So, if you had $1,546 in the market it became worth $10,021. But, if you were a member of Congress, it rose about 1.5% a month and you would have ended up with $26,970. Each dollar in the market grew into $6.48 while for the lawmakers it grew into $17.44.

"The researchers, whose findings were presented at a congressional hearing in July, said the statistics suggest that those unusual returns must be based on lawmakers' access to "government and important social contacts.""

But legislators acting on their self interest is not new. Charles Beard wrote about this in his book An Economic Interpretation of the Constitution of the United States. He argued that self-interest was a big force in how the framers wrote the constitution.

In the 1950s, Forrest McDonald We the People : The Economic Origins of the Constitution, in attempt to refute Beard. But more recently, economic historian Robert A. McGuire wrote a book called To Form a More Perfect Union: A New Economic Interpretation of the United States Constitution. He used modern statistical analysis to show that the Beard thesis may be legitimate.

My students might recall something like this that I talk about on the first day of the semester. Congressmen in the early 1790s voted on the "Funding and Assumption Act" based on how much money they would receive if that bill passed. The bill paid back all of the debts from the Revolutionary War at full value (they were not getting paid back before the Constitution was passed because under the Articles of Confederation all states had to agree to a tax increase-this did not happen much so taxes were never raised to pay back the money the government borrowed to finance the war). But under the Constitution if both the House and the Senate passed a tax increase and the president signed it, it became law.

The debts were securities or bonds. Some congressman owned them. I found how much about half the congressmen owned in these bonds from McDonald's book. The ones who voted yes on the bill had an average of about $6,000 while the ones who voted no had about $700. So it is possible that money influenced the vote. 

Here is a passage from John Spencer Bassett's book about the "Funding and Assumption Act" The Federalist System, 1789-1801:

"All the speculating class, in Congress and out of it, were zealously in favor of the scheme; and while it was till being debated they were trying to by all the means known to their class to buy up, even in the remote parts of the country, the old bonds at the depreciated values."

Here are they guys who voted yes and their dollar value of their bond holdings:

AMES 35
BASSETT 0
BURKE 5252
BUTLER 0
CLYMER 14000
DALTON 12
DCARROLL 227
ELLSWORTH 5985
FITZSIMMONS 2668
GALE 4252
GERRY 50000
GROUT 0
IZARD 20865
JOHNSON 0
KING 10000
LANGDON 27921
MORRIS 11000
PARTRIDGE 2195
PATERSON 0
READ 341
SEDGWICK 1680
SHERMAN 7729
STRONG 10903
STURGES 189
SUMTER 0
WADSWORTH 1625
WHITE 1619
WLSMITH 11910

Now the no votes

BALDWIN 2500
COLES 0
FEW 640
GILMAN 1025
GRIFFIN 0
HARTLEY 0
LIVERMORE 0
MADISON 0
MATHEWS 0
MJSTONE 3814
MOORE 0
MUHLENBERG 0
SCOTT 127
WILLIAMSON 2600 

Related post:

60 Minutes: Insider trading is legal for members of Congress-but it is nothing new, it started in 1790  (2011)

Friday, November 29, 2024

Are Middlemen Inflating Grocery Bills?

This is another in a series of posts on how people are dealing with inflation and how they have been affected by it. Related posts are listed below.

See The Mysterious Fees Inflating Your Grocery Bill: Some food makers complain of a flood of obscure charges from distributors; ‘Is that price gouging or costs going up?’ by Jesse Newman of The WSJ.

In the print edition the title of the article was "Middlemen Inflate Grocery Bills." But in many cases the article states that stores and manufacturers get services for the fees the distributors charge. In other places the article indicates that distribution is a very competitive business, which would leave little room for inflating prices. I highlighted those in red.

Here are the excerpts from Newman's article:

"The price of a bag of coconut-cashew granola at Whole Foods jumped last year from $5.99 to $6.69. Why that happened defies simple explanation.

The granola maker, Wildway Foods, said the cost of making the cereal hasn’t gone up that much, and that it isn’t pocketing more profit. It jacked up the price, it said, in large part to offset fees that piled up from a little-known link in the supply chain: grocery distributors. There were charges for processing grocery promotions, others for potential spoilage and still more related to alleged shipping glitches."

"Many small manufacturers that have raised their prices have another explanation. They say they also are being squeezed by the distributors who act as gatekeepers to many supermarkets. 

Distributors are the middlemen of the grocery business. They buy products from food makers—many of them too small to run their own distribution networks—then store, sell and ship them to supermarkets. A small number of them, including KeHE Distributors, C&S and United Natural Foods, or UNFI, sell to grocery stores nationwide."

"Fees and other charges levied on food makers, such as for late or partial shipments, have long been a part of the grocery business. Grocers impose many of their own fees for things like promotion and shelf space, which distributors pass on to food companies. Distributors charge extra for processing those fees, and levy others themselves. 

Launching a new flavor for an existing product? There’s a fee for that. Running a promotion at retail? Distributors charge for that, too. If distributors buy too much and products expire before hitting store shelves, they can deduct spoilage fees. But if food makers short an order, aiming to avoid spoilage charges, distributors can ding them for that.

Many smaller food makers complain they are being gouged, and that fees and other charges that stream in from distributors have forced them to raise their prices to stay in business. 

Distributors operate on razor-thin profit margins, with limited ability to offset rising operating costs. Food executives said grocers have enormous power to dictate terms with distributors, and that small food companies can be naive about the costs involved in building a brand and getting it to store shelves."

"The national distributors handle tens of billions of dollars worth of packaged food each year. They are a key route to the grocery shelf for thousands of small food makers, and provide much of the merchandise found in the aisles of independent grocers."

"“It’s almost impossible to make money as a distributor,” said James Curley, a food industry veteran who has worked for both manufacturers and distributors. “It’s just the nature of the business.”"

"Distributors deduct fees and other charges from the checks they write to food makers, often leaving smaller manufacturers with a fraction of their anticipated revenue."

"Deb Conklin, chief executive of KeHE, said food distribution is costly and complex, especially when it involves smaller brands with lower sales volumes. She said three-quarters of the fees KeHE charges are passed on from grocers.

“There are costs to doing business,” she said, noting that KeHE moves some 80,000 different products to 35,000 stores. “We don’t charge for the sake of charging.” 

Conklin said KeHE’s practices are spelled out in contracts signed by food makers, and that small brands often don’t fully understand the terms they agree to with distributors and grocers. Since she took over at KeHE last year, she said, supplier success has been a key part of its strategy. It has hosted seminars to help suppliers better understand how food distribution works, and it is trying to help them improve their shipping systems."

"To win business, distributors often bid against one another to be the primary supplier of food brands to grocers. The resulting contracts typically limit how much distributors can mark up prices on goods they buy from food makers. In practice, what large supermarkets pay distributors frequently doesn’t cover their costs.

That leaves distributors reliant on so-called inside income, or revenue generated from food manufacturers."

"Distributors’ rules and charges are a symptom of pressures rippling through the supply chain, according to current and former grocery and distribution executives. Grocers are competing with one another to win shoppers with lower prices. Big food sellers have gained market share, giving them more leverage in negotiations with distributors.

Distributors also have consolidated, absorbing smaller and regional firms, leaving food makers with fewer alternatives."

"Greg Ferrara, CEO of National Grocers Association, which represents independent grocers and distributors, said there is still plenty of competition in both the grocery and distribution sectors.

Some food makers raised their prices after UNFI introduced a new policy for suppliers earlier this year. UNFI began charging a 2.5% fee on purchases, in return for consolidating various fees and providing access to sales data and insights.

“Fee consolidation will reduce friction, increase transparency, and improve predictability, resulting in time and cost savings,” UNFI said in a February letter to suppliers."

Related posts:

Inflation Has Cooled, but Americans Are Still Seething Over Prices: Many people—though not all—saw wage increases that kept pace with the pandemic’s rapid price hikes, but the psychological toll remains (2024)

Child Care, Rent, Insurance: Where Inflation Hits Hardest Now (2024)

Why do workers dislike inflation? (2024)

Inflation Usually Hits Harder for Poor Families. For a Couple of Years, It Didn’t. New research on how inflation varies between the poor, middle class and rich paints a different picture of poverty and inequality (2024)

The Haves and Have-Nots at the Center of America’s Inflation Fight: There’s a growing gap between Americans who are battered by high inflation and interest rates and those who are actually benefiting (2024)

An Increase in Uninsured Drivers Is Pushing Up Costs for Everyone Else (2024) 

Inflation has caused consumers to choose what they need to cut back on (insurance)

Costco and Sam’s Club Aisles Are Full of Gen Z Shoppers (2024)

Consumers are buying in bulk to save money by getting a lower per unit price

Inflation is mentally taxing (2024)

Inflation is mentally taxing. Dealing with a straitened budget exacts a psychological toll as well as a financial one

Store Brands Are Filling Up More of Your Shopping Cart (2024) 

People are on the look out for cheaper alternatives due to inflation

Consumers Fed Up With Food Costs Are Ditching Big Brands (2024) 

After years of price increases, food companies say more consumers pull back; fast-food chains and snack makers plan new deals and flavors

Are Americans Worrying Too Much About Inflation? Two opposing views (2024)

The Era of One-Stop Grocery Shopping Is Over (2024)

One thing that I always talked about with inflation was that one of its costs was all the things we had to do to avoid it. Consumers are making 8% more trips to different retailers as inflation continues to upend household budgets. They are going to more stores to find lower prices. But it costs time to do that and probably more money on gas.

When workers were paid twice a day and given half-hour shopping breaks (Germany, 1923

By mid-1923 workers were being paid as often as three times a day. Their wives would meet them, take the money and rush to the shops to exchange it for goods. However, by this time, more and more often, shops were empty. Storekeepers could not obtain goods or could not do business fast enough to protect their cash receipts. Farmers refused to bring produce into the city in return for worthless paper. The requirements to calculate and recalculate commercial transactions in the billions and trillions made it practically impossible to do business in paper Marks.

Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Turkey Prices Ease This Year, but Watch Out for the Sides (the cost of the average Thanksgiving meal for a group of 10 people is down 5% from lasts year)

The average price for a turkey is expected to fall 6.1%, but a pecan pie may cost 8% more

By Kirk Maltais of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"The average price for a turkey this holiday season is projected to be down for a second year in a row, said the American Farm Bureau Federation"

"some favorite side dishes will remain stubbornly expensive for shoppers"

"The Farm Bureau projects the average price for a Thanksgiving turkey to fall 6.1% to $25.67, or $1.68 a pound, this year. The lower price comes amid lower costs for feed grains and despite lower production of turkeys in the U.S. thanks to the spread of bird flu in American poultry farms."

"A smaller North American potato crop this year due to adverse weather issues and a change in consumer demand has the U.S. potato price up 7.6% year over year"

"The Farm Bureau said that it expects prices for a 14-ounce package of stuffing mix to increase by more than 8% from last year to $4.08. The price for a dozen dinner rolls also is expected to rise by more than 8% to $4.16."

"prices for some pies may be increasing, with Expana’s Thanksgiving Pecan Pie index up 8% from last year, due mostly to higher prices for pecans that are offsetting cheaper costs for sugar, vanilla and butter."

"the Farm Bureau forecasts the cost of the average Thanksgiving meal for a group of 10 people at $58.08. That’s down 5% from the previous year, and down 9% from the record of $64.06 set in 2022, the highest since the Farm Bureau began its yearly assessment in 1986."

Here is a graph of the change in cost over time from economists Samantha Ayoub, Bernt Nelson & Betty Resnick of The American Farm Bureau Federation.

It looks like the cost has not changed that much adjusted for inflation over the last 20 years.


Here is one that goes from 1986-2019. It looks like the price fell from about $25 in 1986 to about $20 in 2019 (in 2019 $s).