The % of 25-54 year olds employed fell from 80.9% in Sept. to 80.6% in Oct.; Average hours worked had no change

One weakness of the unemployment rate is that if people drop out of the labor force they cannot be counted as an unemployed person and the unemployment rate goes down. They are no longer actively seeking work and it might be because they are discouraged workers. The lower unemployment rate can be misleading in this case. People dropping out of the labor force might indicate a weak labor market.

We could look at the employment to population ratio instead, since that includes those not in the labor force. But that includes everyone over 16 and that means that senior citizens are in the group but many of them have retired. The more that retire, the lower this ratio would be and that might be misleading. It would not necessarily mean the labor market is weak.

But we have this ratio for people age 25-54 (which also eliminates many college age people who might not be looking for work).

It is up 0.2 this year. It had not fallen in any month this year until Oct. It was 80.9 for 2 months in 2023 and the last time it was that high before that was in 2001. We have now had 23 straight months of 80% or higher.

It was 80.6% in Jan. 2020 just before Covid. The 80.9% in June & July 2023 was the highest since the 80.9% in April, 2001. It was 80.6% in Jan. 2020 and 69.6% in April 2020.  Click here to see the BLS data. 

It was 79.875% for all of 2022 & 80.667% for all of 2023. So far this year the 10 month average is 80.77%. So the average this year is still higher than for 2023.

The unemployment rate was 4.1% in Oct. after being 4.1% in Sept. The unemployment rate was 3.6% for all of  2022 as well as 2023.  Click here to go to that data.

The labor force participation fell from 62.695% to 62.564%. 

The % of the adult population employed fell from 60.155% to 59.971% (that is people 16 years old and older).

60.0% of the adult population was employed in 2022 (that is people 16 years old and older). 

60.3% of the adult population was employed in 2023. So we had a slight increase.

This negative jobs report is partly due to hurricanes and the Boeing strike. See U.S. economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, impacted by hurricanes, Boeing strike by Jeff Cox of CNBC.

Here is the timeline graph of the percentage of 25-54 year olds employed since 2014.

 

Now since 1948.   

Now hours worked. This comes from the St. Louis FED. See Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private. It was 34.2 in both Sept. & Oct. Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions.