Thursday, December 04, 2025

Do employers still think that a college degree is a good signal of future productivity?

See It’s Too Early to Write Off College Degrees: Companies are favoring multitool graduates with broad skill sets by Callum Borchers of The WSJ.

This reminds me of "signaling" in economics. Here is Wikipedia says about it:

"In contract theory, signalling (or signaling; see spelling differences) is the idea that one party (termed the agent) credibly conveys some information about itself to another party (the principal). For example, in Michael Spence's job-market signalling model, (potential) employees send a signal about their ability level to the employer by acquiring education credentials. The informational value of the credential comes from the fact that the employer believes the credential is positively correlated with having greater ability and difficult for low ability employees to obtain. Thus the credential enables the employer to reliably distinguish low ability workers from high ability workers."

Excerpts from The WSJ article: 

"Companies that once struggled to fill desk jobs now have their pick of available talent. And they’re picking according to familiar criteria."

"The majority of us are vying for white-collar jobs and we face a future where qualification standards are intensifying, not relaxing. The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce projects 42% of jobs in 2031 will require at least a B.A. or B.S., up from 35% today."

"What we’re going to see is that when there’s more supply than demand, employers are going to revert back to the degree as a proxy for smart." [said Johnny C. Taylor, chief executive of the human-resources group SHRM]

"There are plenty of reasons to think hard about whether college is worthwhile, including the prospect of suffocating debt and the option to learn a trade instead. On the whole, though, people with bachelor’s degrees earn considerably more than those without.

A new Indeed survey of 10,000 workers found roughly three-quarters of people whose education ended after high school earn less than $50,000 a year. Only 45% of bachelor’s degree holders make less than $50,000."

It takes effort to determine whether someone without a degree can handle a job that typically goes to a college graduate. So it’s no surprise that businesses are less willing to go to those lengths now."

Related posts:

Changing pathways to success for young people and how some high schoolers might be getting there (2025) 

Do Liberal Arts Colleges Pay Off? What the Data Say (2024) 

The Top U.S. Colleges That Make New Graduates Rich (2024) 

Is College Worth It? (2024) (Interesting tool created by FREOPP. It allows you to find out your return on investment (ROI) from going to college. You can choose a school and a major and it will tell you your ROI.)

When it comes to lifetime earnings, the most important decision appears to be the choice of college major (2024)

Studying Economics Increases Wages a Lot (2020)

What College Majors Pay The Highest? (2013)

50 College Majors With the Best Return on Investment (2015)

Will Studying Economics Make You Rich? A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of the Returns to College Major  (2023)

Why do employers pay extra money to people who study a bunch of subjects in college that they don’t actually need you to know? Signaling (2020)

Cognitive Endurance as Human Capital (2022) 

Yes, a College Degree Is Still Worth It (2023)

Does It Pay To Go To College? (2009)

Maybe That College Degree Is Not As Valuable As You Thought (2010)

Is College Still A Good Investment? (2012)

The Diminishing Returns of a College Degree: In the mid-1970s, far less than 1% of taxi drivers were graduates. By 2010 more than 15% were (2017)

The Diminishing Returns of a College Degree (2017) 

Many college dropouts are worse off economically than if they hadn’t started college (2019)

College Still Pays Off, but Not for Everyone (2019)

Also see The Philadelphia Eagles' Personnel Strategy: Targeting College Grads: Six of the Seven Players the Team Drafted This Year Are on Track to Graduate by Kevin Clark of the WSJ. It seems like NFL teams see the college degree as a signal. Exceprt:

"Philadelphia's philosophy of pursuing graduates was born when Roseman, the Eagles' general manager since 2010, and Kelly, the team's second-year coach, each discovered that teams with the most college graduates are overwhelmingly successful. Kelly learned this late in his coaching tenure at Oregon, when former Indianapolis Colts coach Tony Dungy, whose son played at Oregon, mentioned in a talk to Oregon players that in the 2000s, the two teams who happened to have loads of graduates were the Colts and New England Patriots. Those teams dominated the first decade of this century.

"I didn't know he'd take it this far," Dungy said, jokingly.

In a private conversation later, Dungy, now an analyst for NBC, told Kelly that his research showed players with degrees were more likely to earn a second NFL contract and make more money. He told Kelly "the guys with degrees have what you are looking for. They are driven. If it's between two players, a degree might tip the scale. But at the time, I don't think he was even thinking of the NFL."
But before Kelly even arrived in Philadelphia, Roseman was doing his own research. Each year, Roseman and his lieutenants take the last four teams left in the playoffs and do reports on them—studying their players' height, weight, background and virtually everything else. Through those reports came evidence that the most successful teams had many college graduates on them. When Roseman and Kelly joined forces, the plan was clear.

The trends over the last five drafts are startling. Studies show that teams who select players who spent five years in college—and thus almost always have a degree—win big. Of the three teams with the most fifth-year seniors drafted, two of them met in February's Super Bowl: the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos. The Jacksonville Jaguars, who went 4-12, took the fewest.

The team that drafted the most players who stayed just three years on campus? The New York Giants, who have missed the playoffs the past two seasons. The Colts, Patriots and Washington Redskins, who have five total playoff appearances in the last two years, have taken the fewest three-year players, who rarely have college degrees.

Kelly said a degree is more than proof of intelligence. "It's also, what is their commitment?" he said. "They set goals out for themselves and can they follow through for it? A lot of people can tell you they want to do this, this and this. But look at their accomplishments."

The Eagles say they want players who are prepared, and a degree confirms that. Take wide receiver Jordan Matthews, a Vanderbilt economics major whose study habits translated perfectly to the NFL."


A Doonesbury comic strip from 1980 seemed to predict this. One of the college players in the huddle says he is taking a course in Bio-Physics during football season to impress the scouts. The printing might be hard to read, so I typed up all the dialogue and put it after the strip.

 

 Anyone see Willy?

He had to finish up a Bio-Physics report.

Where is he really?

I couldn't believe it either.

Okay Turner, what do you have to say for yourself?

Sorry, I'm late B.D. I had to finish up a Bio-Physics report.

Bio-Physics? What the hell are you doing taking a course that tough during football season?

To impress the scouts, man. I'm hoping to make the pros.

Impress the scouts?

You figure a good transcript will improve your chances, Willy?

Of course, man. You can't even think about joining the pros unless you've had four years of college.

No kidding?

Absolutely. Its virtually unheard of for a kid to get a job in the NFL with only a high school education.

That's the dumbest thing I ever heard! Nobody cares if football players are educated!

Sure they do. Why do you think there's such a thing as academic eligibility?

But that's a joke. For Gods's sake!

So what's your plan, Willy?

Well, I thought if I held off and got my masters, it might give me an edge. 

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