Friday, October 02, 2026

The % of 25-54 year-olds employed rose to 80.7% from 80.4% in August; Average hours worked unchanged

One weakness of the unemployment rate is that if people drop out of the labor force they cannot be counted as an unemployed person and the unemployment rate goes down. They are no longer actively seeking work and it might be because they are discouraged workers. The lower unemployment rate can be misleading in this case. People dropping out of the labor force might indicate a weak labor market.

We could look at the employment to population ratio instead, since that includes those not in the labor force. But that includes everyone over 16 and that means that senior citizens are in the group but many of them have retired. The more that retire, the lower this ratio would be and that might be misleading. It would not necessarily mean the labor market is weak.

But we have this ratio for people age 25-54 (which also eliminates many college age people who might not be looking for work).

2022) 79.883% 
2023) 80.683%
2024) 80.717%
2025) 80.600% (just an 11 month average due to no data for October instead of 12)
 
There have been only 5 months since April 2001 when the % of 25-54 year-olds employed was as high as 80.9%. The high so far in 2026 is 80.8%, reached in Jan. & June. But it fell to 80.2% in July. We have now had 46 straight months with at least 80%. The only longer streak was 65 months from 1996-2001.

The unemployment rate was 4.2% in Sept. after being 4.1% August. Click here to go to that data. Here is what it was for each of the last 4 years. 

2022) 3.6%
2023) 3.6%
2024) 4.0%
2025) 4.3%
 
Labor Force participation rose from 61.644% to 61.789%. Here is what it was for each of the last 4 years 
 
2022) 62.2%
2023) 62.6%
2024) 62.6%
2025) 62.4%
 
The % of the adult population employed rose from 59.091% to 59.209% (that is people 16 years old and older). Here is what it was for each of the last 4 years 
 
2022) 60.0%
2023) 60.3%
2024) 60.1%
2025) 59.7%
 
Here is the timeline graph of the percentage of 25-54 year olds employed since 2016.
 
 
 Now since 1948. 
 
 
Now hours worked. This comes from the St. Louis FED. See Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private. It was 34.4 in both August and Sept. Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions. 
 
 
 
Related posts: 

"The reason for the discrepancy is that there are two surveys. The establishment survey is used for the Labor Department's monthly jobs report. They contact businesses for this survey. The household survey is used to put together the unemployment rate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics contacts households for this one."

See also Comparing employment from the BLS household and payroll surveys from the BLS.

See Labor market faltered in September as jobs increased by just 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% by Jeff Cox of CNBC.