Repeated accounts of shortages each year don’t stand up to scrutiny
In economics, shortage means that the price is lower than the price where supply and demand intersect so that the quantity demanded is greater than the quantity supplied. It is not always used that way in the media or everyday conversation.
Excerpts from the WSJ article:
"“Shortage to me means, ‘We don’t have enough, we’re going to come up short.’ We never have,” said Marsha Gray, the executive director of the Real Christmas Tree Board, the U.S. Agriculture Department’s research and promotion board for the industry."
"Last year, 87% of consumers found the tree they wanted at the first place they looked,"
"Christmas-tree data isn’t as detailed as for many crops. There are no official annual estimates of sales"
"Growers did cut back in the aftermath of the 2007-09 recession because of several years of weak sales and oversupply. By 2017 the number of Christmas-tree farms was down 3% from 2012 and their total acreage was 4% lower"
"But there is little evidence this translated into trees being unavailable."
"An annual survey from the National Christmas Tree Association, an industry group of growers, found the median price was $74.70 in 2016. In 2017, when stories about the shortage exploded, the price actually fell slightly to $74.30. The median price was $69.50 in 2021."
"Odds are that some of the smaller farms will indeed run out, but that says nothing about the national supply.
“When you talk about undersupply, are you talking about during Covid when you went to buy toilet paper and it was bare shelves? No, that’s not what we’ve ever seen or encountered,” said Jill Sidebottom, a spokeswoman for the NCTA. “Are you talking about some retail lots selling out early? Sure.”"
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Introduction to Microeconomics by Luís Cabral
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