Maybe this is good news.
1.08% over four months would be 3.26% for a year if it went up that much over each of the next two four-month periods as well. That is still a little high since it is above the 2% target the Federal Reserve sets (although they use a different index, the PCE or personal consumption expenditures price index which was up 1.012% over these four months or 3.66% for 12 months).
The percentage of 25-54 year-olds employed rose from 79.7% to 80.7%.
By way of comparison, the seasonally adjusted CPI was up 1.35% over the previous four months (July-Nov. for a 4.1% annual rate) while the percentage of 25-54 year-olds employed fell from 80.0% to 77.7%.
And in the four months before that, the seasonally adjusted CPI was up 2.5% (a 7.66% annual rate) while the percentage of 25-54 year-olds employed fell from 80.1% to 80.0%.
So before the last 4 months, employment was trending down for 8 months (in fact it averaged 79.95% over the 8 months from April-Nov. after being 80.1% in March) with even higher inflation than recently. And as I mentioned in Friday's post, the percentage of 25-54 year-olds employed hit 80.8% in April. So the good news continued.
This table shows the seasonally adjusted CPI and the percentage of 25-54 year-olds employed for the last year.
|
Year |
Month |
Seasonally Adjusted CPI |
% of 25-54 Year-Olds Employed |
|
2022 |
Mar |
287.472 |
80.1 |
|
2022 |
April |
288.611 |
79.9 |
|
2022 |
May |
291.268 |
80.0 |
|
2022 |
June |
294.728 |
79.8 |
|
2022 |
July |
294.628 |
80.0 |
|
2022 |
Aug |
295.320 |
80.2 |
|
2022 |
Sept |
296.539 |
80.2 |
|
2022 |
Oct |
297.987 |
79.8 |
|
2022 |
Nov |
298.598 |
79.7 |
|
2022 |
Dec |
298.990 |
80.1 |
|
2023 |
Jan |
300.536 |
80.2 |
|
2023 |
Feb |
301.648 |
80.5 |
|
2023 |
Mar |
301.808 |
80.7 |
Where did I get the 1.08% increase in the seasonally adjusted CPI from Nov. 2022-March 2023? 301.808/298.598 = 1.01075 which rounds off to 1.018
Other related links:
See Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for data on the seasonally adjusted CPI.
Consumer Price Index Data from 1913 to 2023
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price IndexClick here to see the BLS data on The Percentage Of 25-54 Year-Olds Employed
The Bureau of Labor Statistics makes seasonal adjustments. See Consumer Price Index Summary.
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