Friday, May 26, 2023

Why is the youth unemployment rate in China 20.4%? Is it structural unemployment or cyclical unemployment?

Here are the definitions of two types or causes of unemployment:

Structural-unemployment caused by a mismatch between the skills of job seekers and the requirements of available jobs.

One example of this is when you are replaced by a machine. Another example is when there is a fall in demand for your product, so you get laid off, like with typewriters since people now use computers. A third example is geographical, when the jobs are not in your region of the country.

Cyclical-unemployment caused by a fall in GDP. This comes from the idea of the business cycle. We assume that when GDP falls, the unemployment rate goes up (companies need fewer workers since their sales have fallen). And that when the GDP rises, the unemployment rate goes down. 


"Joblessness among young people aged 16 to 24 rose to a record of 20.4% in April, significantly higher than a few months ago and far above the prepandemic rate of 13% or lower in most of 2019."
 
"A central problem, economists say, is that China isn’t creating enough of the high-wage, high-skill jobs that are sought after by its expanding base of educated young people"
 
"Rather than trade down for lower-wage jobs, many young people are opting to wait for more opportunities, even though such opportunities might not be available.

“China’s high youth unemployment rate is not transitory but structural,” said David Wang, chief China economist at Credit Suisse. “There is a mismatch in the skills the youth are trained to provide and the skills that existing jobs require.”

Chinese officials are trying several tactics to address the problem, including mandating that state-owned companies hire more graduates"

"Some economists still believe the problem is a passing phenomenon, and that many more youths will find work as China’s broader economic recovery continues." [this implies that the problem is cyclical-CM]

Related posts:

Is unemployment still high because of structural unemployment? (2021)

Is The Long Economic Expansion Showing That Cyclical Unemployment Has Been A Bigger Problem In Recent Years Than Structural Unemployment? (2019)

Is Covid causing some structural unemployment? (2020)

Is Covid causing some structural unemployment? (Part 2) (2020)

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