Tuesday, December 12, 2023

The Seasonally Adjusted CPI Was up 0.1% in Nov. & 3.1% over the last 12 months

See Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for data on the seasonally adjusted CPI.

That site shows a graph but if you click on the Download button you will get the actual numbers in Microsoft Excel.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL) was 307.917 in Nov. and 307.619 in Oct. Since 307.917/307.619 = 1.001, that means it was up 0.1% in Nov. If we had that every month for 12 months it would be up 1.2%.

It was 298.598 in Nov. 2022. Since 307.917/298.598 = 1.031, that means it was up 3.1% over the last 12 months.

The non-seasonally adjusted CPI was 307.051 in Nov. and 297.711 in Nov. 2022. That was up 3.1% since 307.051/297.711 = 1.031. So pretty close to the seasonally adjusted CPI. This is still above the Fed's target of 2.0% (although they prefer to use the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index which is up 3.04% over the last 12 months).

For more information, see Inflation slowed to a 3.1% annual rate in November by Jeff Cox of CNBC. Excerpts:

"Prices across a broad range of goods and services edged higher in November but were mostly in line with expectations, further easing pressure on the Federal Reserve.

The consumer price index, a closely watched inflation gauge, increased 0.1% in November, and was up 3.1% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for no gain and a yearly rate of 3.1%.

While the monthly rate indicated a pickup from the flat CPI reading in October, the annual rate showed another decline after hitting 3.2% a month earlier.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI increased 0.3% on the month and 4% from a year ago. Both numbers were in line with estimates and little changed from October."

"Worker paychecks increased on an inflation-adjusted basis, with real average hourly earnings rising 0.2% on the month and 0.8% from a year ago, the Labor Department said in a separate release."

The article also discusses what is going up and what is going on. There is a graph of the monthly year-over-year percent change in prices and core prices going back almost 3 years.

Other related links:

Consumer Price Index Data from 1913 to 2023

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics makes seasonal adjustments. See Consumer Price Index Summary.

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