Wednesday, August 07, 2024

Expectation of future price in the news

One of the shift factors for demand is expectation of future price. If buyers expect a significantly higher price in the near future, then demand to day will increase or shift to the right.

See Weak Economic Data Prompts Stock Selloff: Yield on 10-year Treasury note slides below 4% by Ryan Dezember of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"Investors sought shelter in bonds. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which falls when bond prices rise, began declining before the opening bell, when the Labor Department reported an unexpected weekly rise in jobless claims. The descent continued throughout the session, with the 10-year yield settling at 3.977%, down from 4.107% on Wednesday.

The 2-year yield, which often moves with expectations for short-term rates set by the Fed, has lost more than one-quarter percentage point over the past five sessions. It settled Thursday at 4.163%.

Thursday’s was the largest one-day yield decline since Dec. 13 for both 2-year and 10-year Treasurys.

Bill Merz, head of capital market research at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, said the firm has urged clients to shift from money-market funds and other cash-like holdings into longer-duration government bonds before returns decline further.

“Make sure that you’re capturing these yields because they’re not going to stick around forever,” he said. “We’re starting to see that play out.” 

Investors had already started buying up bonds in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s soon cutting interest rates. Bonds rallied Wednesday after Fed chairman Jerome Powell said little to dissuade investors from betting that the central bank will reduce borrowing costs at its September meeting. The Fed held rates steady this week."

When bond yields (interest rates) fall, then bond prices are going up. So people were buying before they thought the price would rise.

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