Wednesday, September 11, 2024

The Seasonally Adjusted CPI Was up 0.187% in August

News reports might be rounding that up to 0.2%. It was up 0.15% in July (after being down 0.056% in June & being up only 0.0057% in May).

See Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for data on the seasonally adjusted CPI.

That site shows a graph but if you click on the Download button you will get the actual numbers in Microsoft Excel.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL) was 314.121 in August and 313.534 in July. Since 314.121/313.5349 = 1.00187, that means it was up 0.187%. If we had that every month for 12 months it would be up 2.27%.  

It was 306.187 in August 2023. Since 314.121/306.187 = 1.0259, that means it was up 2.59% over the last 12 months.

The non-seasonally adjusted CPI was 314.796 in August and 307.026 in August 2023. That was up 2.53%. So pretty close to the seasonally adjusted CPI. This is still above the Fed's target of 2.0% (although they prefer to use the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index which was 2.5% higher in July 2024 than July 2023).

For more information, see Consumer prices rose 0.2% in August as annual inflation rate hits lowest since early 2021 by Jeff Cox of CNBC. Excerpts: 

"Inflation in August declined to its lowest level since February 2021, according to a Labor Department report Wednesday that also showed a key measure higher than expected, setting the stage for an expected quarter percentage point rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, increased 0.2% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones consensus, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.

That put the 12-month inflation rate at 2.5%, down 0.4 percentage point from the July level, slightly below the estimate for 2.6% and at its lowest level in 3½ years.

However, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% for the month, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate [Actually, the seasonally adjusted core CPI went from 318.872 to 319.768, a 0.28% increase. If we had that for 12 months it would be up 3.4%-CM]. The 12-month core inflation rate held at 3.2%, in line with the forecast."

"Real earnings also increased for the month, with average hourly earnings outpacing the monthly CPI increase by 0.2%, the BLS said in a separate release. On a 12-month basis, inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings rose 1.3%."

The article also discusses what is going up and what is going on. There is a graph of the monthly year-over-year percent change in prices and core prices going back almost 3 years.

Other related links:

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in U.S. City Average (CPILFESL) This is also from from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. It has the seasonally adjusted core CPI.

Consumer Price Index Data from 1913 to 2023

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics makes seasonal adjustments. See Consumer Price Index Summary.

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