Saturday, December 21, 2024

How might Trump's immigration policies affect the economy?

See What Trump’s Immigration Plans Mean for America’s Job Growth: Surging unauthorized migration swelled the labor force. Deportations, tighter border controls could change that by Paul Kiernan of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"Since 2021, immigration has added around 10 million people to the U.S. population, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates. Less than one-third came into the country legally on immigrant visas, work or student visas, or as refugees. Many of the rest crossed the border without authorization or overstayed their visas, often requesting to stay on humanitarian grounds once they had entered.

Even before this historic migration surge, there were about 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. as of 2022"

"The undocumented population includes roughly three million “Dreamers,” who were brought to the U.S. as children"

"the president has broad authority to restrict many of the pathways that immigrants have used to enter the country in recent years."

"initially at least, a narrow subset of migrants would be targeted: those deemed “public-safety threats and national-security threats,” and migrants who have been ordered to leave the U.S. but haven’t yet done so."

"Removals of immigrants from the interior of the country (as opposed to at the border) peaked at 243,000 in 2009, at the depths of the 2007-09 recession, and averaged 126,000 a year over the following decade"

"Immigrants who arrived in 2020 or later accounted for 1.8% of the U.S. population as of last year, according to the Census Bureau, but 8.1% of roofers, 6.7% of agricultural workers, 5.6% of construction laborers and 5.6% of maids and housecleaners, among other occupations."

"“Our economy is just going to grow more slowly, and our labor force is going to grow more slowly—in some ways that’s just accounting,” said Edelberg [Wendy Edelberg, an economist at the Brookings Institution]. “What gets painful is having such changes be very abrupt.”"

Related posts:

Economics and the election (What Trump’s Win Means for the Economy: President-elect plans tariffs and tax cuts, as in his first term. There are risks with both, but also lots of caveats)

Life is full of tradeoffs: Trump can make stronger growth or a smaller trade deficit his priority, but not both

How some of Trump's policies might affect the economy (Taxes and tariffs)

Immigration & Asylum meet Type I & II Errors

Immigration Is Behind the Strong U.S. Economy

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