Wednesday, December 11, 2024

The Seasonally Adjusted CPI Was up 0.313% in November

Here are the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPI each of the last six months:

June  -0.0562%
July  0.1549%
Aug  0.1872%
Sep  0.1799%
Oct  0.2441%
Nov  0.3129%

See Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for data on the seasonally adjusted CPI.

That site shows a graph but if you click on the Download button you will get the actual numbers in Microsoft Excel.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL) was 315.454 in Oct. and 316.441 in Nov. Since 316.441/315.454 = 1.00313, that means it was up 0.313%. If we had that every month for 12 months it would be up 3.82%.

It was 308.024 in Nov. 2023. Since 316.441/308.024 = 1.0273, that means it was up 2.73% over the last 12 months.

In the last 6 months it is up just 1.01027%. If we had that for 12 months it would be up 2.0604%.

The non-seasonally adjusted CPI was 315.493 in Nov. and 307.051 in Nov. 2023. That was up 2.75%. So pretty close to the seasonally adjusted CPI. This is still above the Fed's target of 2.0% (although they prefer to use the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index which was 2.3% higher in Oct. 2024 than Oct. 2023).  

For more information, see Annual inflation rate accelerates to 2.7% in November, as expected by Jeff Cox of CNBC. Excerpts:

"Consumer prices rose at a faster annual pace in November, a reminder that inflation remains an issue both for households and policymakers.

The consumer price index showed a 12-month inflation rate of 2.7% after increasing 0.3% on the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. The annual rate was 0.1 percentage point higher than October.

Excluding food and energy costs, the core CPI was at 3.3% on an annual basis and 0.3% monthly. The 12-month core reading was unchanged from a month ago."

The article also discusses what is going up and what is going on. There is a graph of the monthly year-over-year percent change in prices and core prices going back almost 3 years.

Other related links:

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in U.S. City Average (CPILFESL) This is also from from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. It has the seasonally adjusted core CPI.

Consumer Price Index Data from 1913 to 2023

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics makes seasonal adjustments. See Consumer Price Index Summary.

No comments: