The Seasonally Adjusted CPI Was down 0.05% in March

Here are the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPI each of the last six months:

Oct  0.2265%

Nov  0.2805%

Dec  0.3647% 

Jan  0.4669%

Feb 0.2160%

Mar -0.0500% 

 

The last decline before this was last June when it was down 0.0029%.

 

See Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for data on the seasonally adjusted CPI.

 

That site shows a graph but if you click on the Download button you will get the actual numbers in Microsoft Excel.

 

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL) was 319.775 in Feb. and 319.615 in Mar. Since 319.615/319.775 = 0.9995, that means it was up 0.0500% (since 1 - 0.9995 = 0.0005 and when you convert it to percent you move the decimal over two spaces to the right). If we had that every month for 12 months it would be down 0.60%.

 

News stories might be saying it was down 0.1%. They may have rounded up from 0.05%.

 

It was 312.107 in Mar. 2024. Since 319.615/312.107 = 1.024, that means it was up 2.4% over the last 12 months. 

The non-seasonally adjusted CPI was 319.799 in Mar. and 312.332 in Mar. 2024. That was up 2.40%. So pretty close to the seasonally adjusted CPI. This is still above the Fed's target of 2.0% (although they prefer to use the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index which was 2.5% higher in Feb. 2025 than Feb. 2024).

 

For more information, see Inflation rate eases to 2.4% in March, lower than expected; core at 4-year low by Jeff Cox of CNBC. Excerpts:

"Consumer price inflation eased more than expected in March as President Donald Trump prepared to launch tariffs against U.S. trading partners, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.

The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, fell a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in March, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.4%, down from 2.8% in February.

Excluding food and energy, so-called core inflation ran at a 2.8% annual rate, having increased 0.1% for the month. That was the lowest rate for core inflation since March 2021."

The article also discusses what types of products are going up in price and what is going down. There is a graph of the monthly year-over-year percent change in prices and core prices going back almost 4 years.

 

Other related links:

 

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in U.S. City Average (CPILFESL) This is also from from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), compiled by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. It has the seasonally adjusted core CPI.

 

Consumer Price Index Data from 1913 to 2023

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index 

 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics makes seasonal adjustments. See Consumer Price Index Summary.

 

The table below has the annual inflation rate since 1914 in the columns labeled CPI %Ch. or CPI percentage change. It is from Consumer Price Index Data from 1913 to 2023 and is not seasonally adjusted. It is also the December to December change in the CPI. That site also looks at how the 12 month average for the CPI changed from one year to the next.

 

Year	CPI %Ch.		Year	CPI %Ch.		Year	CPI %Ch.		Year	CPI %Ch.
1914	1.0		1944	2.3		1974	12.3		2004	3.3
1915	2.0		1945	2.2		1975	6.9		2005	3.4
1916	12.6		1946	18.1		1976	4.9		2006	2.5
1917	18.1		1947	8.8		1977	6.7		2007	4.1
1918	20.4		1948	3.0		1978	9.0		2008	0.1
1919	14.5		1949	-2.1		1979	13.3		2009	2.7
1920	2.6		1950	5.9		1980	12.5		2010	1.5
1921	-10.8		1951	6.0		1981	8.9		2011	3.0
1922	-2.3		1952	0.8		1982	3.8		2012	1.7
1923	2.4		1953	0.7		1983	3.8		2013	1.5
1924	0.0		1954	-0.7		1984	3.9		2014	0.8
1925	3.5		1955	0.4		1985	3.8		2015	0.7
1926	-1.1		1956	3.0		1986	1.1		2016	2.1
1927	-2.3		1957	2.9		1987	4.4		2017	2.1
1928	-1.2		1958	1.8		1988	4.4		2018	1.9
1929	0.6		1959	1.7		1989	4.6		2019	2.3
1930	-6.4		1960	1.4		1990	6.1		2020	1.4
1931	-9.3		1961	0.7		1991	3.1		2021	7.0
1932	-10.3		1962	1.3		1992	2.9		2022	6.5
1933	0.8		1963	1.6		1993	2.7		2023	3.4
1934	1.5		1964	1.0		1994	2.7		2024	2.9
1935	3.0		1965	1.9		1995	2.5
1936	1.4		1966	3.5		1996	3.3
1937	2.9		1967	3.0		1997	1.7
1938	-2.8		1968	4.7		1998	1.6
1939	0.0		1969	6.2		1999	2.7
1940	0.7		1970	5.6		2000	3.4
1941	9.9		1971	3.3		2001	1.6
1942	9.0		1972	3.4		2002	2.4
1943	3.0		1973	8.7		2003	1.9