See Predicting Market Crashes for Fun and Profit by Spencer Jakab of The WSJ. Excerpts:
"It was 35 years ago today that this newspaper printed one by newsletter writer Joseph Granville that the stock market would crash. It barely budged"
"Strategist Elaine Garzarelli did in a TV interview before Black Monday in 1987, becoming the best-paid strategist on Wall Street for a while. She later ran a series of poorly performing mutual funds."
"Fund manager Michael Burry, who correctly predicted the housing crash . . . has issued occasional, cryptic warnings on social media about stocks."
"buying an S&P 500 index fund on the date of five of his [Burry's] warnings beginning in 2019 resulted in an average annualized gain of 34% in the following six months."
"A 2010 study, “Predicting the Next Big Thing: Success as a Signal of Poor Judgment” showed that pundits who make an amazing call actually have a worse chance of being right in the future than random chance."
Related posts:
Did Economist Hyman Minsky Predict The Financial Crisis? (2008) (one of his former students said "He always thought a market collapse was just around the corner." See Hyman Minsky didn’t have all the answers)
Want to Beat the Stock Market? Avoid the Cost of ‘Being Human’ (2023)
Keynes As An Investor (2012)
Beat the Market by Picking the Market (2022)
Interesting Theory on Stock Market Fluctuations (2007)
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