The Depopulation Bomb: As global fertility rates drop, two economists make the case for humans

By Greg Ip of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"Dean Spears and Michael Geruso, economists at the University of Texas at Austin" [wrote a book called] "After the Spike: Population, Progress, and the Case for People." 

"Global fertility—the number of babies a woman is expected to have over her lifetime—averaged 2.25 last year, the United Nations estimates, the lowest in recorded history, barely above the replacement rate of 2.1 that keeps population stable.

Where fertility levels out is unknown. But the authors note that depopulation will happen so long as it goes below two, and two-thirds of the world’s population now lives in countries with fertility below two. In most others, including throughout sub-Saharan Africa, fertility is generally falling.

If global fertility fell to the current U.S. fertility rate of 1.6, world population will rise from 8 billion now to a peak of 10.2 billion in 2080 and then start to decline. “It will not fall to 6 billion or 4 billion or 2 billion and hold there,” they write. “Humanity could hasten its own extinction if birth rates stay too low for a long time.”"

[Spears and Geruso] "see people as a resource, not a drain on resources."

"humans, through ingenuity and behavioral change, have reduced pollution and expanded available resources as their numbers grew. For example, in 2013, China’s smog was among the world’s worst. Over the next decade its population grew by 50 million, but particulate air pollution fell by half. As India’s population has grown, so has the average height of its children thanks to better nutrition and sanitation."

"Britain’s per capita carbon emissions have fallen by half since the 1950s." 

"the lifetime climate footprint of an extra baby has been declining"

"a fixed share of people become idea generators: scientists, entrepreneurs or inventors. The greater the population, the more ideas."

"Solving most problems also involves fixed costs. Developing a vaccine or a smartphone costs the same whether for one person or 8 billion. The bigger the population, the more such investments become financially feasible."

[Spears and Geruso don't blame falling fertility on] "the high cost of raising children, lack of family-friendly policies, abortion, or declining marriage and religious observance."

"Scandinavian countries have more generous child care and parental leave policies than the U.S.—and lower fertility. Canada has cheaper college tuition, and lower fertility. In India, religious observance and marriage rates are high, and fertility is below the replacement rate. South Korea has among the world’s most restrictive abortion laws, and lowest fertility rates."

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