The percentage of 25-54 year olds employed for the first 8 months of 2025 was lower than it was for all of 2024, something that usually happens at the time of or right after a recession

The average of the % of 25-54 year olds employed for the first 8 months of 2025 is 80.575%. For all of 2024 it was 80.717%. Data came from  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The table below shows all the cases of when this % was lower for the first 8 months of a year than it was for all of the previous year.

Before this year there were 20 cases and 14 of them overlapped at least somewhat with a recession Cases that did not overlap at all are in red. 

To see how the table works, the first line is 1948. The % of 25-54 year olds employed that year was 62.98% and for the first 8 months of 1949 it was 62.26, so it was lower. There was a recession that lasted from Nov 1948 to Oct 1949, which overlaps with the first 8 months of 1949.

The first red case is the first 8 months of 1971 (68.99 is less than the 69.61 for all of 1970). The recession ended in Nov 1970 so there was no overlap. But it was still not long after a recession. The same is true for all the red cases. If they don't overlap with a recession they came not long after one.

But so far we are not in a recession this year and we have not had one since April of 2020. If we don't get one, the drop in this the % of 25-54 year olds employed will be a first.  

Year	AVG	1st 8 Mos. Next year	Diff	Closest Recession
1948	62.98	62.26	-0.72	Nov 1948 to Oct 1949
1953	65.32	63.86	-1.45	July 1953 to May 1954
1957	65.96	64.44	-1.52	Aug 1957 to April 1958
1960	65.83	65.24	-0.60	April 1960 to Feb 1961
1969	69.95	69.83	-0.13	Dec 1969 to Nov 1970
1970	69.61	68.99	-0.62	Dec 1969 to Nov 1970
1974	70.82	69.18	-1.64	Nov 1973 to March 1975
1979	74.59	74.41	-0.18	Jan 1980 to July 1980
1981	74.65	73.79	-0.86	July 1981 to Nov 1982
1982	73.51	73.25	-0.26	July 1981 to Nov 1982
1989	79.93	79.90	-0.03	July 1990 to March 1991
1990	79.68	78.74	-0.95	July 1990 to March 1991
1991	78.64	78.36	-0.28	July 1990 to March 1991
2000	81.46	80.88	-0.58	Mar 2001 to Nov 2001
2001	80.55	79.44	-1.11	Mar 2001 to Nov 2001
2002	79.33	78.90	-0.42	Mar 2001 to Nov 2001
2007	79.90	79.53	-0.38	Dec 2007 to June 2009
2008	79.09	76.16	-2.93	Dec 2007 to June 2009
2009	75.78	75.14	-0.65	Dec 2007 to June 2009
2019	79.95	75.49	-4.46	Feb 2020 to April 2020
2024	80.71	80.58	-0.13

See US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions from The National Bureau of Economic Research.