There Is Now Clearer Evidence AI Is Wrecking Young Americans’ Job Prospects (but the news is not all bad)

Young workers face rising AI competition in fields like software development, but some also benefit from AI as a helper, new research shows

By Justin Lahart of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"Young workers are getting hit in fields where generative-AI tools such as ChatGPT can most easily automate tasks done by humans, such as software development"

[ther is] "evidence that in fields where AI can help people in their work, rather than replace them, employment among young people is improving."

"ChatGPT rolled out during a period when the Federal Reserve was curbing economic growth by sharply raising interest rates, and job growth was moderating from the pandemic-related hiring surge. The new research helps tease out the AI impact from those other factors." [a reminder about ceteris paribus, to hold all other factors constant]

"areas where AI can automate many of the tasks workers perform . . . such as software developers, receptionists, translators and customer service representatives . . . : Overall employment in those categories has softened since late 2022 relative to other occupations"

"Among software developers aged 22 to 25, for example, the head count was nearly 20% lower this July versus its late 2022 peak."

"Other factors could be hitting those computer-science jobs, including a general slump in employment at technology companies or pandemic-related education disruptions. But the data suggest such possibilities can’t explain away the AI effect on other types of jobs."

[the study was] "also able to rule out other factors that might skew the data, such as the interest-rate sensitivity of different businesses"

"AI might help medical professionals make accurate diagnoses more quickly"

"occupations where researchers have found AI could act as a helper, rather than a replacement, actually saw employment growth that exceeded overall employment"

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