The Dangerous Economist: Is There An Aluminum Shortage?

Thursday, April 09, 2026

Is There An Aluminum Shortage?

See Tariffs Strained U.S. Aluminum Supplies. Now the Iran War Is Making It Worse by Bob Tita of The WSJ. The print title was "Aluminum Shortage May Get Worse." I have a picture of the print article at the end of this post.

A shortage is when the quantity demanded is greater than the quantity supplied and the price is below equilibrium. But this looks like prices are going up because supply decreased. There is a higher price and less for companies to buy. But the price is not below equilibrium.

Excerpts:

"costs have gone up over the past year, due to higher U.S. tariffs on imported aluminum and rising global prices for the metal." (this would cause the supply curve to shift to the left-that lowers quantity and raises price)

"Most aluminum shipments from countries that ring the Persian Gulf have been curtailed since the fighting started in late February." (this indicates that quantity is falling)
"A production outage is expected to ripple through depleted U.S. aluminum stocks in the coming months, further putting pressure on prices—which have already been battered by tariff challenges."
"The delivered price of aluminum in the U.S., with assorted charges and the tariff factored in, is $6,100 a metric ton, up 83% from a year ago."
"Stocks of aluminum in the U.S. are estimated at 200,000 metric tons, about two weeks’ worth of domestic consumption, compared with four to six weeks usually."
"metal traders and distributors have been reluctant to maintain larger inventories"