Tuesday, May 26, 2020

We just had two straight months with the CPI falling at least 0.4% for just the fifth time since 1947

Seasonally adjusted data from the St. Louis Fed.

Here are the CPI numbers for the last 3 months

Feb.) 259.050
March) 257.953
April) 255.902

The drop for March was 0.42% while for April it was 0.795%.

Here are all the occurrences. We had three straight months in 2008. So that counts as two cases. Those all came in about the middle of the last recession.


Date Change
Nov. 1948 -0.00617
Dec. 1948 -0.00455


Sep. 2006 -0.00491
Oct. 2006 -0.00444


Oct. 2008 -0.00860
Nov. 2008 -0.01771
Dec. 2008 -0.00823


Mar. 2020 -0.00423
Apr. 2020 -0.00795


A 0.7% or greater decrease for just one month has happened only six times since 1947. Three were in 2008, one in 1948 and one in 1949. The sixth is the one from this April.

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