The New Baseball Rule That Has Turned Pickoff Moves Into Game Theory

Pitchers are now allowed a total of just three pickoff attempts per at-bat, which has launched a radical re-evaluation of how and when to use them

By Lindsey Adler and Andrew Beaton of The WSJ. Excerpts:

"While baseball analysts and coaches work out their approach to baseball’s new rules, there’s a group of economists with a special brand of expertise in modeling situations just like these. They’re experts in evaluating risk-reward situations because their life is studying game theory. 

These academics see the new pickoff rule as a zero-sum game: What’s good for one side is bad for the other. In this case, everything that’s a benefit to baserunners is to a pitcher’s detriment. 

Yet there may be a way for pitchers to neutralize the playing field in a zero-sum game: manufacturing randomness. Economists recommend that pitchers vary how often they attempt a pickoff and how many they use. That way the threat of it will always persist as a deterrence to baserunners.

“You don’t want your behavior to be predictable,” said David McAdams, a professor at Duke’s Fuqua School of Business. “If the other side knows what you’re going to do, they can take advantage of that.”"

"There are other ways to keep runners close, after all. One is a back pick—in which the catcher receives a pitch and quickly fires to first to try to pick off a runner. Another is a pitchout, in which the pitcher deliberately throws a ball that allows the catcher to position himself to throw out a runner. "

"There is one problem with this approach, says Colin Camerer, a behavioral economist at CalTech. People tend to intuitively stink at randomizing. 

When most people are asked to randomize something—such as predicting a number of coin flips—they tend to over alternate, he said. What they perceive as random is actually rife with patterns. In baseball, a pitcher who uses his second pickoff throw every other time might think he’s being clever, but he’s actually leaving a trail of information that can inform a baserunner’s actions."

"Baseball’s new pitch clock itself is a detriment to a pitcher’s ability to create randomness. Pitchers now have 20 seconds to deliver a pitch with runners on, but it is important for them to create variety in the timing of their deliveries. Otherwise, opponents will soon figure out if a starter begins his delivery with seven seconds left on the clock each time. From there, it becomes a simple math problem for baserunners to determine whether to take the risk and run. 

“If the clock is under five seconds, it’s probably a good bet that they’re not going to use a pickoff attempt,” said Giants pitcher Alex Wood. “The guys who get back on the mound quickly, they’re going to have different hold times. Whether they hold the ball for three seconds or five seconds, they can use that to their advantage.”"

"Even some of the finest minds on the planet admit they aren’t certain what the ultimate effect of the pickoff rule would be. 

When asked about the potential ramifications of the new pickoff rules, Richard Thaler, a Nobel Prize winner for his work on behavioral economics, wrote in an email: 

“Dunno.”"

Related posts:

Game Theory and the Prisoner's Dilemma on the TV Show "Numb3rs" (2007)

What An Economist Said About The Movie "A Beautiful Mind" (2008)

The Prisoner's Dilemma (2016)