Friday, April 07, 2023

The percentage of 25-54 year-olds employed rose 0.2 percentage points in March hitting the highest level since May 2001; average hours worked fell slightly

One weakness of the unemployment rate is that if people drop out of the labor force they cannot be counted as an unemployed person and the unemployment rate goes down. They are no longer actively seeking work and it might be because they are discouraged workers. The lower unemployment rate can be misleading in this case. People dropping out of the labor force might indicate a weak labor market.

We could look at the employment to population ratio instead, since that includes those not in the labor force. But that includes everyone over 16 and that means that senior citizens are in the group but many of them have retired. The more that retire, the lower this ratio would be and that might be misleading. It would not necessarily mean the labor market is weak.

But we have this ratio for people age 25-54 (which also eliminates many college age people who might not be looking for work).

The percentage of 25-54 year olds employed was 80.7% in Mar. and 80.5% in Feb. It was 80.6% in Jan. 2020 just before Covid. This is the first month since Covid began that we are above or equalled 80.6%. The last time it was higher was 80.8% in May, 2001.

It was 80.6% in Jan. 2020 and 69.6% in April 2020.  Click here to see the BLS data. The unemployment rate was 3.5% in Mar.  Click here to go to that data

60.42% of the adult population was employed in Mar. (that is people 16 years old and older).
60.24% of the adult population was employed in Feb.

So up almost two tenths of a percent.

Here is the timeline graph of the percentage of 25-54 year olds employed since 2013.


Now since 1948


Now hours worked. This comes from the St. Louis FED. See Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private. They went from 34.5 in Feb. to 34.4 in Mar.

"Average weekly hours relate to the average hours per worker for which pay was received and is different from standard or scheduled hours. Factors such as unpaid absenteeism, labor turnover, part-time work, and stoppages cause average weekly hours to be lower than scheduled hours of work for an establishment. Group averages further reflect changes in the workweek of component industries. Average weekly hours are the total weekly hours divided by the employees paid for those hours."


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